Pakistan to Build Massive Dams for Abundant Water and Power

China and Pakistan have agreed to finance and build two mega dams in Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) for this development was signed by the leaders of the two countries on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in Beijing.

Actual vs Potential Hydropower in South Asia. Source: Economist Magazine


The two dams, called Bunji and Diamer-Bhasha projects, will have the capacity to generate 7,100MW and 4,500MW of electricity respectively. China will provide $27 billion to fund the construction of the two dams, according to media reports.

Pakistan's Hydropower Potential: 

Pakistan has the potential to generate 59,000MW of hydropower, according to studies conducted by the nation's Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Currently, it's generating only 6,600MW of hydroelectric power, about 11% of the estimated potential. Media reports indicate that China is prepared to finance and build another 40,000MW capacity as part of the development of the Northern Indus Cascade region which begins in Skardu in Gilgit-Baltistan and runs through to Tarbela, the site of Pakistan’s biggest dam, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

Diamer-Bhasha Water Storage:

Diamer-Bhasha project is located on Indus River, about 200 miles upstream from the existing Tarbela Dam, 100 miles downstream from the Northern Area capital Gilgit in Gilgit-Baltistan region.  It will generate 4,500 MW of electricity and its reservoir will hold so much water that it could have averted recent devastating floods that affected large parts of Pakistan. It would also provide enough electricity to end  Pakistan's crippling shortages, according to a report in the Guardian newspaper.  The Diamer-Bhasha reservoir would be 50 miles long, holding 8.5 MAF (million acre feet) of water.

Response to Climate Change:

Pakistan has made only a small contribution to climate change through carbon emissions.  And yet, it counts among the dozen or so nations considered most vulnerable to its damaging effects. These include rising temperatures, recurring cycles of floods and droughts and resulting disruption in food production.

One of the ways Pakistan can help reduce carbon emissions is by realizing its full hydroelectric potential by building more dams. The development of the Northern Indus Cascade region to generate 40,000MW of hydropower is a significant part of this effort.

Prerequisite for Economic Development: 

Availability of abundant and cheap electricity has historically preceded rapid economic development in America, Europe and East Asia. Pakistan has an opportunity to meet this prerequisite by generating large amounts of clean renewable hydropower to meet its hunger for energy required for rapid economic growth in all sectors of the economy ranging from agriculture to manufacturing and services.

Summary:

Pakistan is endowed with significant amount of water and power resources that can be harnessed to enable rapid economic growth in all sectors of its economy. It appears that the Chinese investment, as part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, is now putting this goal within reach. Tens of thousands of megawatts of added electricity and millions of acre feet of additional water will hopefully transform Pakistan's economy and bring prosperity to its people.

Here's a video on the subject:

https://youtu.be/y-VkLn2J6fM



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Recurring Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

LNG Imports in Pakistan

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan


Comments

Riaz Haq said…
#Ramadan #power outages in #Pakistan pile pressure on PM #NawazSharif. #loadshedding #electricity https://www.ft.com/content/bee89ccc-4458-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996 … via @FT


Nawaz Sharif has ordered power companies not to cut electricity supplies in the hours before or after the daily Ramadan fast, as outages in the first few days of the Muslim holy month threaten to embroil Pakistan’s prime minister in a political crisis.

As the fasting period began on Sunday, residents of Karachi, the country’s largest city, were unexpectedly plunged into darkness. The national distribution company blamed a line fault that caused two power stations to fail.

But the outage has highlighted the fragility of Pakistan’s electricity network — a problem that threatens to undermine the country’s economic recovery and which is set to become a significant political issue in the run-up to next year’s general election.

Recent power cuts have already prompted widespread protests, during which two people reportedly died.

“These power cuts in Ramadan will severely undermine the government’s reputation further,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political commentator. “If the government fails to manage the electricity situation, the risks for Nawaz Sharif will mount.”




Pakistan has endured an energy shortfall for years, but this summer the gap between supply and demand at peak hours has reached six gigawatts — equivalent to the output of 12 medium-sized coal-fired power stations.

Ministers hope that $35bn of Chinese investment in the country’s power sector, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, will help close the gap.

Unscheduled cuts during Ramadan have particularly angered residents. During the month, Muslims fast during daylight hours, putting extra importance on having power to cook just before dawn and just after dusk.

Usually the government keeps the lights on during religious festivals by paying independent companies to restart expensive mothballed power plants. But it has not done so this year because Ramadan has fallen close to the end of the financial year and the government does not want to exacerbate the fiscal deficit just before it reports its final figures, according to analysts.

The power crisis threatens to undermine Pakistan’s improving economic growth, which has been boosted by a few years of relative political stability. Figures released last week alongside the budget show annual output growth for the year to the end of June are projected to exceed 5 per cent for the first time in a decade.

The other factor that might threaten economic stability is Pakistan’s increasing current account deficit, which is depleting its stock of foreign currency, analysts warn.

Last week’s data show that alongside faster growth, the current account deficit is projected to more than treble from $2.5bn in the last fiscal year to $8.3bn this yearas Pakistan begins to pay Chinese companies for work carried out as part of the CPEC project.

Abid Hasan, a former World Bank economist who has worked in Pakistan, said: “The higher current account deficit will eventually turn into a crisis. This situation has to be managed before it gets out of control.”

But the solutions — whether allowing the rupee to devalue to boost exports or making people pay their electricity bills — are politically unpalatable just a year away from a general election, say officials and analysts. “Reforming Pakistan is tough business,” said one western diplomat.

Riaz Haq said…
THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > PAKISTAN > GILGIT BALTISTAN
Pakistan eyes 2018 start for China-funded Diamer-Bhasha dam

By Reuters Published: June 13, 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1434703/pakistan-eyes-2018-start-china-funded-diamer-bhasha-dam/

Pakistan expects China to fund a long-delayed Indus river mega dam project in Gilgit-Baltistan with work beginning next year, Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal said in an interview with Reuters.

Pakistan has been keen for years to build a cascade of mega dams along the Indus flowing down from the Himalayas, but has struggled to raise money from international institutions amid opposition from its nuclear-armed neighbour India.

Those ambitions have been revived by China’s Belt and Road infrastructure plans for Pakistan, a key cog in Beijing’s creation of a modern-day Silk Road network of trade routes connecting Asia with Europe and Africa.

The $12-$14 billion Diamer-Bhasha dam should generate 4,500MW of electricity, and a vast new reservoir would regulate the flow of water to farmland that is vulnerable to increasingly erratic weather patterns.

Iqbal, the Islamabad lead on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), said a Chinese company from a Beijing-picked shortlist and a local partner would build the dam over a 10-year period, and work should begin in the next financial year, which begins in July.

“This water reservoir is most critical for food security in Pakistan, so is a very high priority project for Pakistan,” Iqbal told Reuters in an interview late on Monday at his ministerial home in Islamabad.

China and Pakistan signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in December for Beijing to help fund and develop Pakistan’s Indus Basin dams, though no timelines have been released. Pakistan estimates there is 40,000MW of hydro potential.

The Diamer-Bhasha dam and reservoir would displace more than 4,200 families in nearby areas and submerge a large section of the Karakoram Highway to China, Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority estimates.

The federal minister also said Pakistani and Chinese engineers were also surveying other projects, including the 7,100MW Bunji hydro power project that would be the first in the cascade that stretches down to the Tarbela Dam near Islamabad.

India’s foreign ministry and ministry for water resources did not respond to requests for comment.
Riaz Haq said…
Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Project

http://dailytimes.com.pk/features/18-Mar-17/neelumjhelum-hydropower-project

The Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Plant is a run-of-the-river hydroelectric power project, with a cost of 404.32 billion rupees (US$ 4.03 billion). The project (under construction since 2008) is designed to divert water from the Neelum River to a power station on the Jhelum River. The power station is located in Azad Kashmir, 22 km south of Muzaffarabad and will have an installed capacity of 968 Mega-Watts. Construction on the project began in 2008, a Chinese consortium was awarded the construction contract in July 2007. The first generator is scheduled to be commissioned in July 2017 and the entire project is expected to be completed and start its operations in December 2017.

Design and operations;

The Neelum–Jhelum Dam is a 47 m (154 ft) high and 125 m (410 ft) long gravity dam.
It will withhold a pondage (reservoir) with 8,000,000 m3 (6,486 acre·ft) capacity of which 2,800,000 m3 (2,270 acre·ft) is peak storage. The dam has the capacity to divert up to 280 m3/s (9,888 cu ft/s) of the Neelum River, into a 28.5 km long head-race tunnel, the first 15.1 km of the head-race is two tunnels which later meet into one.
The tunnel passes 380 m (1,247 ft) below the Jhelum River and through its bend. At the terminus of the tunnel, the water reaches the surge chamber which contains a 341 m (1,119 ft) tall surge shaft (to prevent water hammer) and 820 m (2,690 ft) long surge tunnel.
From the surge chamber, the water is split into four different penstocks which feed each of the four 242 MW Francis turbine-generators in the underground power house.
After being used to generate electricity, the water is discharged back into the Jhelum River through a 3.5 km long tail-race tunnel. The drop in elevation between the dam and power station afford an average hydraulic head of 420 m (1,378 ft).

Decision by ICA;

Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration;

In 2010, Pakistan appealed to the Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration, complaining that the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Plant violates the “Indus River Treaty” by increasing the catchment of the Jhelum River and depriving Pakistan of its water rights. In June 2011, the CoA visited both the Kishanganga and Neelum–Jhelum Projects. In August 2011, they ordered India to submit more technical data on the project. India had previously reduced the height of the dam from 98 m (322 ft) to 37 m (121 ft).

The court asked India in September 2011 to stop constructing any permanent works that would inhibit restoration of the river. With the ruling of International Court of Arbitration, India was not allowed to construct the dam (Reservoir), so, they continued work on the tunnel and power plant. In February 2013 the Hague ruled that India could divert a minimum of water for the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Plant. The Kishanganga Hydroelectric Plant is an $864 million dam which is part of a run-of-the-river hydroelectric scheme that is designed to divert water from the Kishanganga River to a power plant in the Jhelum River basin. It is located 5 km (3 mi) north of Bandipore in Jammu and Kashmir, and will have an installed capacity of 330 MW. Construction on the project began in 2007 and is expected to get complete in 2018.

Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan’s energy sector improvement includes rehab for 1,000-MW Mangla hydropower project

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/07/pakistan-s-energy-sector-improvement-includes-rehab-for-1-000-mw-mangla-hydropower-project.html

Pakistan and French Agency for Development (AFD) on July 20 signed €165 million (US$192 million) in soft loan agreements to improve Pakistan’s energy sector, including rehabilitating the 1,000-MW Mangla hydropower project, according to the government of Pakistan.
The agreements also include financing for the power transmission enhancement investment program, Tranche 4, which covers investment to improve electricity distribution efficiency.

The agreements were signed in Islamabad, Pakistan, by Secretary, Economic Affairs Division, Shahid Mahmood; Ambassador of France, Martine Dorance; and Country Director French AFD, Jacky Amprou.

The Mangla hydropower project is a multipurpose facility located on the Jhelum River in Mirpur district of Azad Kashmir. It includes Mangla Dam, which is the seventh largest dam in the world; the country’s largest reservoir, which has a live storage capacity of 7.48 million acre feet; and 10 generating units.
In January, HydroWorld.com reported Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority announced it was moving forward with modernization of the Mangla project to increase the facility’s generating output by 310 MW at an estimated cost of $769 million.
Pakistan said this latest round of financing for the specified projects is a continuation of implementing the country’s National Power Policy 2013.

Pakistan’s National Power Policy 2013 is designed solidify the country’s energy security by increasing electricity generation to 26.8 GW, reduce average electricity rates by more than 30%, achieve zero load shedding, encourage huge public and private investment and import electricity from India, Iran and Central Asian states, according to the government.

In June, AFD co-financed about $100 million of a $400 million program as part of Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) support of Pakistan’s efforts to provide a more reliable and secure energy sector.

According to ADB, its $300 million in assistance to Pakistan is the third such loan under the Sustainable Energy Sector Reform program, bringing ADB’s total financing to $1 billion since 2014.

Last month, the first generating unit at Pakistan's 147-MW Patrind hydroelectric plant began generating power and was connected to the national grid, according to a statement from National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC). NTDC operates transmission lines for Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority.

Patrind is located on the Kunhar River and is being developed by a consortium called Star Hydro Power Ltd, which includes the Korea Water Resources Corp. and the Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co.

In May, China and Pakistan signed a $50 billion memorandum of understanding to develop and complete the Indus River Cascade, according to information from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The planned cascade includes the 4,500-MW Diamer-Basha project, which is already being constructed and four additional projects being developed: 2,400-MW Patan; 4,000-MW Thakot; 7,100-MW Bunji; and 4,320-MW Dasu.

July 21, 2017 at 11:00 PM Delete
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan signs deal to construct US$698.3 million Sharmai #hydropower project - HydroWorld #energy #KPK #China

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/07/pakistan-signs-deal-to-construct-us-698-3-million-sharmai-hydropower-project.html

Pakistan is moving forward with hydropower development in its northwestern-most province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), located in the district of Dir near Afghanistan’s eastern border, according the government of KP.
KP made the announcement on July 23 after Pakistan Chief Minister Pervez Khattak signed an agreement between Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization (PEDO) and a consortium of Sinohydro and Lahore-based Sapphire Electric Co. for construction of the 150-MW Sharmai hydropower project.
PEDO Chief Executive Officer, Akbar Ayub, said the project is expected to be completed in five years at an estimated cost of US$698.3 million. But, he did not provide any information on the project’s start date.
Information from KP indicates the Sharmai hydro project will include a dam and reservoir, and the powerhouse will be located near Darora village and on the confluence of Usherai Khwar Stream and Panjkora River.
Additional technical information for the project includes the following:
Net head – 196.6 m;
Annual energy generation – 682 GWh;
Reservoir capacity – 32.2 million cubic meters;
Length of power tunnel – 7.8 km; and
Catchment area – 1,950 km2.
The Sharmai hydro project continues the country’s recent trend towards massive planned infrastructure improvements.
Pakistan and French Agency for Development on July 20 signed US$192 million in soft loan agreements to improve Pakistan’s energy sector, including rehabilitating the 1,000-MW Mangla hydropower project, according to the government of Pakistan.
The Mangla hydropower project is a multipurpose facility located on the Jhelum River in Mirpur district of Azad Kashmir. It includes Mangla Dam, which is the seventh largest dam in the world; the country’s largest reservoir, which has a live storage capacity of 7.48 million acre feet; and 10 generating units.
Earlier this year, China and Pakistan signed a US$50 billion memorandum of understanding on May 13 to develop and complete the Indus River Cascade, according to information from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The planned cascade includes the 4,500-MW Diamer-Basha project, which is already being constructed and four additional projects being developed: 2,400-MW Patan; 4,000-MW Thakot; 7,100-MW Bunji; and 4,320-MW Dasu.
In 2016, HydroWorld.com reported KP's hydroelectric power development fund approved the 84-MW Matiltan, 69-MW Daral Khwar, 69-MW Lawi, 40.8-MW Koto and 10.2-MW Jabori plants – all of which are currently in development. In addition, feasibility studies are being conducted for the 446-MW Kari Mushkar, 410-MW Tor Camp Godobar and 110-MW Gabral Kalam.
Ayub also said seven additional hydropower projects with a total combined installed capacity of 668 MW would be initiated through private sector that would bring $2 billion investment in the province, according to government information.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to?
By Nadia Naviwala

https://www.devex.com/news/pakistan-s-100b-deal-with-china-what-does-it-amount-to-90872

Early last year, the Pakistani government sent USAID officials in Islamabad a mystifying letter via snail mail: please stop doing feasibility studies for Diamer Basha Dam

------------
When USAID got the letter in 2016, they suspected that Pakistan had found funding with the Chinese. They were right.

----------------

In May 2017 Pakistan and China signed a $50 billion agreement that included full funding for Diamer Basha and four other dams.

Although enormous, the new agreement hardly merited coverage in Pakistan. China already captured headlines and public imagination in 2013 when the two countries signed memorandums of understanding worth $46 billion to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC has since quietly grown to a $62 billion investment.

The latest $50 billion in memorandums now brings Chinese loans and investments in Pakistan to well over $100 billion. A senior member of the CPEC team at Pakistan’s Ministry for Planning, Development, and Reform predicts that figure will ultimately grow to $150 billion. If the dams face cost overruns — which are 96 percent on average — then that will be a conservative estimate.

-----------

roads and rail are actually a small part of Chinese money in Pakistan — less than $11 billion of the original $46 billion agreement. It’s small because, contrary to popular perceptions, much of the CPEC route is actually financed by Pakistan.

“Much of the roads being built are being built by our money,” says Miftah Ismail, who was Pakistan’s minister for investment until late last month, when the cabinet was dissolved because the Supreme Court voted to remove the prime minister on grounds of corruption.

What Ismail estimates Pakistan will take on in Chinese projects this year — $4 billion in loans and investments — equals what the Pakistani federal and provincial governments have allocated for roads and highways in their own annual budgets.

China is also financing the expansion and improvement of Pakistan’s neglected railway system, doubling its speed from 60 to 120 kilometers per hour.

CPEC roads will connect landlocked Xinjiang province in western China through a new port city that it is building on Pakistan’s coast, Gwadar. China needs these roads to transport goods out, but it is hard to think of what will go in the other direction. China’s exports to Pakistan account for two-thirds of Pakistan’s trade deficit.
Riaz Haq said…
#China racing ahead on 720MW Karot #hydropower plant project in #Pakistan. #CPEC http://sc.mp/oFjuJA via @SCMP_News

Construction of the 720MW Karot power station on the Jhelum river began in December and looked set to finish nine months ahead of its December 2021 completion date, a first for a Pakistan hydro-project, said Qin Guobin, chief executive officer of the state-owned China Three Gorges South Asia Investment Ltd.
The company has put in place an aggressive strategy to cut the project’s financing costs.
“For us, Pakistan is a strategic market,” Qin said at the site. “If we managed to complete it earlier we can save financing costs and make it more competitive.”
Pakistan’s energy demand is expected to grow by 6 per cent to 35,000MW by 2024 as its population of more than 200 million people grows along with the economy. For more than a decade, it has been struggling to overcome daily power shortages that have left industry and residents in the dark.
China has stepped in to meet some of those shortages, financing projects worth more than US$50 billion in an economic corridor that runs through Pakistan. The route is part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road Initiative” to connect Asia with Europe and Africa with a web of ports, railways and motorways links for trade.
Three Gorges’ focus in Pakistan is clean energy and it has a US$6 billion portfolio in three hydro and three solar power plants. The Karot project is in the Pakistan-administrated part of Kashmir, which India and Pakistan both claim and have fought two wars over since independence in 1947.

Riaz Haq said…
World Bank report: Hydro important part of private infrastructure development in Pakistan

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/10/world-bank-report-hydro-important-part-of-private-infrastructure-development-in-pakistan.html

A recent report on private investment in infrastructure development, released by the World Bank Group, offers some insights into hydro, including the fact that investments in two hydropower plants in Pakistan helped boost that country into the top five.
The January-June 2017 Private Participation in Infrastructure Half Year Update cites investments in hydropower in Pakistan worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion and says the country was a new entrant to the list of top five countries for private participation in infrastructure. Other countries in the top five are Indonesia, Jordan, Brazil and China.
In Pakistan, the US$1.9 billion investment is for the 870-MW Suki Kinari Hydropower Plant. Suki Kinara is on the Kunhar River in the Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is expected to be completed by 2021.
The US$1.7 billion investment is for the 720-MW Karot Hydropower Plant. The Karot project, on the Jhelum River east of Islamabad, is being developed under Pakistan’s Power Policy of 2002. The first units are expected to go on line in 2020.
A section of the report discusses the energy sector, which was “the most dominant sector for H1 [first half] 2017 investment, accounting for three-quarters of global investments.” The report indicates that, by capacity, hydro projects led the way with cumulative capacity of 1.9 GW.
Of all the private participation in the energy sector in the first half of 2017, 85% was in renewables, and 15% of that 83% was hydropower.


JANUARY – JUNE
2017
Private Participation
in Infrastructure (PPI)
HALF YEAR UPDATE

https://ppi.worldbank.org/~/media/GIAWB/PPI/Documents/Global-Notes/PPI2017_HalfYear_Update.pdf

Indonesia was the destination for the highest amount of PPI investment, while Pakistan and
Jordan were new entrants to the top five countries, joining Indonesia, Brazil, and China.
Indonesia, Pakistan, and Jordan are amongst the top five highest PPI-investment countries because
of a few multibillion-dollar power projects. Indonesia saw investments in US$ 4.2 billion and US$2.2
billion coal fired power plants, Jordan had a US$2.1 billion investment in an oil shale-fired power
plant, and Pakistan had investments in two hydropower plants worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion.

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