Monday, February 6, 2017

Pakistan's Focus on Hardware (Infrastructure) Instead of Software (Education)

American theologian and author James Freeman Clarke (1810-1888) is reported to have explained the distinction between a politician and a statesman as follows: "A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation."

How does this apply to the current crop of Pakistani leaders in charge of running the country? Are they statesmen or mere politicians?

I think the answer to this question can be found in how they invest available national resources, particularly their longer term investments in education, training, nutrition and health care sectors which do not show results as quickly as building roads, metro bus, metro trains, ports and other physical infrastructure.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor:

Pakistani politicians, particularly PMLN and Nawaz Sharif, love to highlight China-Pakistan Economic Corridor  (CPEC) projects and their accomplishments in terms of motorways, metro bus, metro trains, ring roads and airports rather education and health care. And the reason they do it is because such projects can be completed before the next elections while the returns on investments in education and health take much longer to become visible.

Pakistan's M2 Motorway

In a recent piece titled "Pakistan's misguided obsession with infrastructure", The Economist magazine  said Chinese diplomat assigned to work with Pakistan on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor acknowledged this problem. Here's an excerpt from The Economist:

"Lijian Zhao, a Chinese diplomat, says China is all too aware that Pakistan needs more than just big-ticket infrastructure if it is to flourish. Disarmingly, he praises the efforts of Britain and other countries to improve Pakistan’s “software”, such as education and the rule of law. “But China’s expertise is hardware,” says Mr Zhao."

Education and Literacy Rates:

Pakistan's net primary enrollment rose from 42% in 2001-2002 to 57% in 2008-9 during Musharraf years. It has been essentially flat at 57% since 2009 under PPP and PML(N) governments.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2015-16

Similarly, the literacy rate for Pakistan 10 years or older rose from 45% in 2001-2002 to 56% in 2007-2008 during Musharraf years. It has increased just 4% to 60% since 2009-2010 under PPP and PML(N) governments.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2015-16

Pakistan's Human Development: 

Human development index reports on Pakistan released by UNDP confirm the ESP 2015 human development trends.Pakistan’s HDI value for 2013 is 0.537— which is in the low human development category—positioning the country at 146 out of 187 countries and territories. Between 1980 and 2013, Pakistan’s HDI value increased from 0.356 to 0.537, an increase of 50.7 percent or an average annual increase of about 1.25.

Pakistan HDI Components Trend 1980-2013 Source: Human Development Report 2014


Overall, Pakistan's human development score rose by 18.9% during Musharraf years and increased just 3.4% under elected leadership since 2008. The news on the human development front got even worse in the last three years, with HDI growth slowing down as low as 0.59% — a paltry average annual increase of under 0.20 per cent.

Going further back to the  decade of 1990s when the civilian leadership of the country alternated between PML (N) and PPP,  the increase in Pakistan's HDI was 9.3% from 1990 to 2000, less than half of the HDI gain of 18.9% on Musharraf's watch from 2000 to 2007.



Summary:

The history of the industrialized world tells us that democracy, peace and prosperity can not be sustained in the long run without a solid foundation of a healthy and well-educated society. Pakistani leaders must learn from history and pay more attention to accelerate human development along with building the necessary infrastructure such CPEC projects. They must allocate greater resources and maintain sharp focus to improve education and health of the people of Pakistan.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistani Democracy's Disappointing Record on Human Development

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Pakistan's Infrastructure and M2 Motorway

Pakistan's Lost Decades

Saving Pakistan's Education, Airline and Railway

Asian Tigers Brought Prosperity; Democracy Followed

Pakistan Democracy: Neither Democracy Nor Development

Challenges of Indian Democracy

Pakistan's Economic History

Comparing Bangladesh with Pakistan

Economic and Human Development in Musharraf Years

India's Share of World;s Poor Up from 22% to 33%

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Musharraf Era Higher Education Reforms in Pakistan

Comparing 30-Year Dictatorships in Indonesia and Pakistan



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17 Comments:

Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan is moving towards development, economic growth: World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/02/07/pakistan-is-moving-towards-development-economic-growth-world-bank-ceo/

She highlighted following opportunities and challenges for Pakistan:

In my discussions with the government in Pakistan we focused on three areas of opportunity and challenge: the first is higher growth and jobs. The government wants annual economic growth of 6 to 7 per cent compared to 4.7 per cent achieved in fiscal year 2016. But this will only happen if investment doubles to 30 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Investments in energy, such as Tarbela, to end constant power cuts, as well as improvements in the business environment, so that companies hire more people, will be critical to success. A more favorable environment for private investment would open up opportunities for women, youth, and the underserved.

A second area is one of the best investments Pakistan can make: investing in its own people. Pakistan’s population of 200 million is expected under current projections to double by 2050 and so these investments cannot wait. Currently Pakistan spends only three per cent of its GDP on health, nutrition, and education. This needs to double if it is to make a significant impact. Pakistan will need to raise more tax revenue to pay for these services and improve on the way that the money is spent.

A third area that I discussed with Pakistan’s leaders is the intertwined challenges of water, energy and security. Tarbela was completed in 1974 as part of the Indus Basin Project following the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan in 1960. This Treaty, to which the World Bank is a signatory, has survived frequent tensions between India and Pakistan, including conflict, and provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development in both countries for more than half a century.

The need for a regional integrated water resources management approach

Since the Treaty was agreed, population has multiplied, use has boomed, and now we also have climate change. In the first 45 years Treaty disagreements were resolved by the Indus Waters Commission. In the past 12 years these have been elevated to a Neutral Expert and a Court of Arbitration.

February 7, 2017 at 10:00 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

#PWC’s ‘brave’ report predicts #Egypt and #Pakistan will surpass #Canada’s #economy by 2050. #GDP http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/pwcs-brave-report-forecasts-egypt-and-pakistan-will-surpass-canadas-economy-by-2050 … via @financialpost

The economies of emerging market minnows Egypt and Pakistan could surpass the Canadian economy by 2050, according to a “brave” new report by management consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers.

“By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada,” PWC said in a report published Tuesday.

The findings — based on gross domestic product purchasing power parity (PPP) terms — also forecasts India will replace the United States as the world’s second largest economy after China by 2050.

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The PWC forecast seems incredulous as Egypt’s GDP based on the more common market exchange rates (MER) stood at US$340 billion and Pakistan a mere US$284 billion in 2016.

By contrast, Canada’s US$1.5 trillion massive economy placed it as the 10th largest in the world.

By PWC’s MER measure, Canada’s GDP will slip to No. 17 by 2050, only narrowly beating both Egypt (No. 18) and Pakistan (19).

February 7, 2017 at 5:06 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Excerpts of The Price Waters Cooper PWC's The World in 2050 Report


http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf

Pakistan 20th largest economy by 2030 ($1.87 trillion) & 16th by 2050 ($4.24 trillion) from 24th largest in 2016 ($988 billion)


By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France,
while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a PPP basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India
and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around
5% a year. Figure 3 shows the projected average annual GDP growth rate over the next 34 years for all of the 32
countries we modelled. Total GDP growth is also broken down into how much is attributable to population
growth and how much to real GDP per capita growth.

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2.1 Background to our World in 2050 reports
Our first ‘World in 2050’ report was published in March 2006, featuring projections for potential GDP growth
for 17 leading economies over the period to 2050. Our initial model covered:
 the 10 largest advanced economies: the G7 (US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan),
Australia, Spain and South Korea; and
 the seven largest emerging economies, which we referred to collectively as the E7 (China, India, Brazil,
Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey).
We subsequently updated our projections in March 2008, January 2011, January 2013 and February 2015.
With each new edition up to 2015, more countries were added to our model, which now also covers:
 Argentina, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to complete coverage of the G20;
 the Netherlands, as a key European advanced economy;
 Poland and Malaysia, as two fast-growing medium-sized countries; and
 Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam as
additional relatively large emerging markets.

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The largest movers over the next 35 years are projected to be Nigeria, Vietnam and Pakistan. Nigeria, which
currently ranks in 22nd place, could move up to 14th though this is dependent on diversifying its economy and
addressing weaknesses in institutions and infrastructure, as discussed further in Box 2. Vietnam could move
from 32nd to 20th, and Pakistan could move from 24th to 16th. Other strong emerging market performers include
Bangladesh who moves from 31st to 23rd and the Philippines, which moves up 9 places to 19th by 2050.


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As previously touched upon, strong population growth will be a key driver of overall GDP growth in many of
today’s emerging market and developing countries, boosting their potential workforce and domestic consumer
markets. Figure 13 shows that the growth in the working age populations of many emerging markets, including
Nigeria, Pakistan and India, will outstrip growth in the total population. In contrast, for many advanced
economies, such as Japan, Italy and Germany, their populations will actually shrink in size by 2050. This
contraction will predominately be driven by a fall in the working age population; across the G7 economies,
average growth in the working age population will be negative over the period 2016-2050 at -0.3% per annum.

February 7, 2017 at 7:13 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Progress in education by provinces in Pakistan:


Literacy rate for 10+ years in Pakistan's provinces:


KPK flat at 53% from 2013-14 to 2014-15

Punjab up from 61% in 2013-14 to 63% in 2014-15

Sindh up from 56% in 2013-14 to 60% in 2014-15

Balochistan up from 43% in 2013-14 to 44% in 2014-15


Primary Enrollment Rate by Province:

KPK up from 54% in 2013-14 to 56% in 2014-15

Punjab down from 64% in 2013-14 to 61% in 2014-15

Sindh up from 48% in 2013-14 to 51% in 2014-15

Balochistan up from 39% in 2013-14 to 46% in 2014-15


http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_16/10_Education.pdf

February 8, 2017 at 10:32 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Forget #India, Its Neighbors #Pakistan, #Bangladesh & #SriLanka Are the Next Big Thing. #Economy http://www.barrons.com/articles/forget-india-its-neighbors-are-the-next-big-thing-1486517309 … via @barronsonline

Forget India. Investors looking for the next big thing should look to its South Asia neighbors instead – Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

With a combined 390 million people, the three countries represent what Morgan Stanley chief global strategist Ruchir Sharma calls “the quiet rise of South Asia” as opposed to India which has been “flattered by spasms of hype for years”. While overshadowed by their larger neighbor, the trio is enjoying fast-paced growth, embracing much needed reforms, and look set to enjoy a demographic dividend over the long term. “A substantially higher economic growth rate than in many other economies globally, coupled with fantastic demographics that will continue supporting growth for many years ahead”, East Capital fund manager Adrian Pop tells Barron’s Asia. The Stockholm-based firm manages nearly EUR3 billion in frontier markets.

Pakistan is the flag bearer of the positive changes taking place in the South Asian nations. Since coming to power five years ago, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has got inflation under control, cut the budget deficit and reined in the current account deficit. But more importantly, terrorism finally appears to be on the back-foot given more assertive action by the army. Chinese investment has also poured in: $50 billion will be spent on new roads, transport links and energy projects. “More power capacity is key for Pakistan to move to an even higher economic growth rate,” says Pop. That will benefit stocks in materials and energy. In December, the Pakistan Stock Exchange sold 40% of itself to consortium of Chinese investors.

The Karachi stock index is up by about 50% since the start of last year, propelled by index compiler MSCI’s decision to bump up the country to emerging markets status. That will bring in hundreds of millions of dollars from passive funds into the Pakistani benchmark. The rally in stocks has arguably left the market looking a little pricey as the KSE 100 index trades at over 12 times earnings, its heftiest valuation since late 2009. That’s still about a 15% discount to the MSCI emerging markets index, however, plus Pakistani stocks yield an attractive 4%-plus dividend.

February 9, 2017 at 10:48 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Smart Solutions to Improve #Pakistan’s #Education. #Technology to monitor #teacher attendance http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/02/13/smart-solutions-to-improve-pakistans-education via @WorldBank


Story Highlights

The Sindh School Monitoring System spreads across 15 districts and to the remotest parts of the province. Plans are underway to expand it to the entire province.
This first digital system in the education sector in Pakistan allows transparent and effective monitoring of staff, students and school infrastructure.
More than 210,000 teaching and non-teaching staff have been profiled using biometric information, covering more than 26,200 schools.
Grade seven in the Qureshi Government Boys Secondary School in Karachi is bustling with activity. The science class is in session and the chemistry teacher is talking about atoms and molecules. The students listen eagerly as the sea breeze permeates the room.

In the adjacent staff room, Sultan Dogar has just arrived. He is the Field Monitoring Assistant from the Sindh government and comes every two months to monitor teacher presence and school infrastructure. He uses a fingerprint-based biometric and photo system supported by Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates.

More than 26,200 schools and 210,000 education staff spread across the province are being monitored. The transparent and effective system aims to address such problems as “absconder teachers” – teachers who are employed yet absent for a lengthy period--, missing basic facilities and infrastructure, closed schools and lack of reliable and timely information on school status and teacher presence.

To date, disciplinary action has been initiated against 40,000 absent teachers and 6,000 absconders.

As Dogar records the data, it is transmitted in real time to a centralized dashboard. The Education and Literacy Department has access to this information and uses it to plan and make informed decisions.

The system has been set up under the Sindh Global Partnership for Education project, which supports the government’s reform efforts over a three-year period.

The government has been at the forefront of this effort and sees immense value in it. ‘‘The Sindh School Monitoring System brings together technology and a robust accountability mechanism to address long-standing governance issues in education,” says Fazlullah Pechuho, Former Secretary Education and Literacy Department, Sindh.

“It is a scalable solution to address teacher absenteeism, missing facilities and student attendance and enrollment. By receiving data directly from the field, we are able to undertake key administrative and policy actions in a timely manner. We consider this an important step towards improving education outcomes in Sindh.”

Teachers also recognize the benefits. Mohammed Shakeel Siddiqui, Section In-charge, Qureshi Primary School, says: ‘‘The system addresses the issue of ghost teachers in school, very often reported in the media. Through thumb impressions, teacher presence is verified. You cannot go wrong. That is really good.’’

Teachers consider it a just and fair system.

‘‘The system acknowledges teachers like us who come regularly and identifies those who don’t. That is only fair,’’ says Shaheen Afrooz who teaches Urdu in a primary school.

February 14, 2017 at 10:47 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

#China investment boosts #Pakistan's economic growth- #CPEC #infrastructure #power #ports #coal Nikkei Asian Review
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Chinese-investment-boosts-Pakistan-s-economic-growth?page=2

More than $35 billion of the CPEC investment will be allocated to energy projects. Once completed by the end of next year, power generation projects are likely to help Pakistan overcome its crippling power shortages, a major bottleneck for growth. This is a big reason the CPEC is welcomed by many in Pakistan's industry, who say it is going to be a "game changer" for the country.

China also recognizes that the CPEC initiative will help secure the quickest trade route connecting the country's western Xinjiang region and other landlocked areas to the Arabian Sea, which could facilitate economic development in the Chinese hinterland. The infrastructure development initiative will also allow China to mitigate the problem of overcapacity at home by exporting materials and equipment to Pakistan.

There are proposals to develop a power plant, an airport and highways and other facilities particularly around the port of Gwadar on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, which is strategically important for China as it provides the country easy access to the sea.

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According to a local newspaper, $700 million of the $1.1 billion spent on CPEC-related projects in the July-September period last year was financed by loans from the China Development Bank. The amount is mainly earmarked for importing materials and equipment from China, which are needed to complete the projects.

Many in Pakistan have voiced concern over the country's rising debt obligations to China. Also, Chinese companies typically bring their own engineers and workers in large numbers to do work in Pakistan.

"Surging imports from China will damage local companies," said Ehsan A. Malik, CEO of the Pakistan Business Council, which represents 62 major companies and organizations. "Tax revenue and employment will not increase." He added, "CPEC may be a Trojan horse."

However, the logic of companies participating in CPEC is very simple. "We asked China, because nobody in the world finances coal projects," said Hussain Dawood, chairman of Dawood Hercules, a large Pakistani conglomerate that includes the Engro group, which is involved in the production of energy and chemicals.

"Investment in CPEC is not only from China," said Arif Habib, CEO of the Arif Habib group. "Companies from Germany, Denmark and Saudi Arabia are also showing interest."

Despite widespread concern about the health of China's economy, Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan's minister of planning and development, said confidently: "The CPEC projects are a high priority for Chinese companies because they can expect good returns. Even though the Chinese economy is slowing down, the companies still have huge cash reserves."

Many Japanese companies also think the best thing to do now is to take advantage of Chinese-built infrastructure in Pakistan to expand their own business. No matter who invested, if energy and infrastructure investment gains momentum, it could stimulate Pakistan's economy.

Amid all the speculation, Pakistan is moving toward its goal of becoming the next big emerging market by gradually shaking off its reputation for terrorism, corruption and political blunders.

February 16, 2017 at 4:24 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

#Lahore #Metro #OrangeLine Budget Exceeds Total Spend on #Education & #Science: Prof Atta. #CPEC https://propakistani.pk/?p=121022 via @ProPakistaniPK

Renowned scientist and former Minister of Science, Dr Atta-ur-Rehman has called for increased collaboration between natural and social scientists to implement new ways of bringing peace to the world.

While delivering a lecture on “Science, Technology and Innovation: Imperatives for Socio-economic Development’ at an event in Karachi, he said,

Technology is a double-edged sword and it needs to be used for the betterment and welfare of mankind and not for their destruction, To earn peace for human beings.

When queries were raised about why scientists have not done much to contribute towards peace in the world, the former chairman of the Higher Education Commission replied that coordination between social scientists and [experts in] natural sciences is essential.

Dr. Rehman compared the GDP and economic development level of China and Singapore with Pakistan and recognized that development in these countries was made possible thanks to efficient utilization of manpower through quality education.

Orange Line Uses More Funds Than Our Educational Budget
He added that a limited budget is being spent on education, science and technology in Pakistan. He remarked that In Pakistan, the Orange Line train project has more funds allocated to its budget than the educational budget for the whole country. Dr. Rehman continued saying,

If Singapore’s exports are $400 billion, it is unfortunate that Pakistan’s exports are only $22 billion because Pakistan lacks in exporting technology and value-added goods.

Removing The Gaps
He highlighted the need to emphasize on polishing creative minds in order to eliminate the gap in knowledge, science and technology. He said that the universities are not measured by the number of enrollments or the buildings they have, but on the basis of research work they do.

Helping The Blind to “See”
Dr. Rehman talked about providing gadgets to the blind would be able to “see” and drive vehicles and devices which can let you communicate in several languages. He also introduced nanotechnology, e-materials, and ebb materials to the audience.

He emphasized how Pakistanis need to realize the importance of science and technology for economic empowerment and encouraged young scholars to play an active role in their field to promote research culture in Pakistan.

Quality Over Quantity
He stressed upon the importance of developing a research culture by providing incentives to faculty members and students adding that quality should be preferred at universities rather than multiplying their numbers and ignoring the quality.

In his concluding comments, HOD-Faculty of Social Sciences, Dr Moonis Ahmar said the thirst for acquiring knowledge was non-existent among the general population of Pakistan. He prompted the young generation to concentrate on training and trying to exceed expectations in their field without squandering their time as “we cannot afford to remain poor and backward”.

February 17, 2017 at 8:20 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

In #Pakistan, it's middle class rising. #Urbanization #MiddleClass #genderequity

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in-pakistan-its-middle-class-rising/article17378526.ece

The general perception still, and unfortunately, held by many people, foreigners and Pakistanis, is that Pakistan is largely an agricultural, rural economy, where “feudals” dominate the economic, social, and particularly political space. Nothing could be further from this outdated, false framing of Pakistan’s political economy. Perhaps the single most significant consequence of the social and structural transformation under way for the last two decades has been the rise and consolidation of a Pakistani middle class, both rural, but especially, urban.

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While a definition, and hence estimation of Pakistan’s middle class, or middle classes, has not been easy, the term has acquired much prominence in social and anecdotal references. Increasing references to the middle class — durmiana tubqa — both as a political category but also as an economic one, occur more regularly in the media. Often, Pakistan’s middle class is referred to by the consumer goods that it has increasingly been purchasing, from washing machines to motorcycles. But more importantly, the term is used for those having an active political constituency and presence. In many ways, the terms used in India after Narendra Modi’s 2014 election, of an “aspiring” or “aspirational” class — also somewhat vague but nevertheless signifying some political and developmentalist notion — have also found some currency in Pakistan

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Data based on social, economic and spatial categories all support this argument. While literacy rates in Pakistan have risen to around 60%, perhaps more important has been the significant rise in girls’ literacy and in their education. Their enrolment at the primary school level, while still less than it is for boys, is rising faster than it is for boys. What is even more surprising is that this pattern is reinforced even for middle level education where, between 2002-03 and 2012-13, there had been an increase by as much as 54% when compared to 26% for that of boys. At the secondary level, again unexpectedly, girls’ participation has increased by 53% over the decade, about the same as it has for boys. While boys outnumber girls in school, girls are catching up. In 2014-15, it was estimated that there were more girls enrolled in Pakistan’s universities than boys — 52% and 48%, respectively. Pakistan’s middle class has realised the significance of girls’ education, even up to the college and university level.

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In spatial terms, most social scientists would agree that Pakistan is almost all, or at least predominantly, urban rather than rural, even though such categories are difficult to concretise. Research in Pakistan has revealed that at least 70% of Pakistanis live in urban or urbanising settlements, and not in rural settlements, whatever they are. Using data about access to urban facilities and services such as electricity, education, transport and communication connectivity, this is a low estimate. Moreover, even in so-called “rural” and agricultural settlements, data show that around 60% or more of incomes accrue from non-agricultural sources such as remittances and services. Clearly, whatever the rural is, it is no longer agricultural. Numerous other sets of statistics would enhance the middle class thesis in Pakistan.

February 28, 2017 at 8:32 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Table 2 of Human Development Report 2016 shows that Pakistan's HDI grew at an annual growth rate of 1.55% in 2000-2010, much faster than 1.09% in 1990-2000 and 0.95% in 2010-2015.

Pakistan's overall HDI growth rate from 1990 to 2015 as 1.24, slower than India's 1.52%.

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2016_human_development_report.pdf

March 21, 2017 at 6:35 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Dr Ata ur Rehman on Geo TV's Jirga with Saleem Safi

2.6% of 17-24 yrs of age group enrolled in higher education in 2000 jumped to 13-14% now.

April 8, 2017 at 11:01 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Only 10% of students have access to higher education in country

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/education/news/Only-10-of-students-have-access-to-higher-education-in-country/articleshow/28420175.cms

Access to education beyond higher secondary schooling is a mere 10% among the university-age population in India. This is the finding of a report "Intergenerational and Regional Differentials in Higher Education in India" authored by development economist, Abusaleh Shariff of the Delhi-based Centre for Research and Debates in Development Policy and Amit Sharma, research analyst of the National Council of Applied Economic Research.
The report says that a huge disparity exists — as far as access to higher education is concerned — across gender, socio-economic religious groups and geographical regions. The skew is most marked across regions. Thus, a dalit or Muslim in south India, though from the most disadvantaged among communities, would have better access to higher education than even upper caste Hindus in many other regions. Interestingly, people living in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal — designated as the north central region — and those in northeast India have the worst access to higher education. Those in southern India and in the northern region — consisting of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Haryana and Delhi — are relatively better placed in this regard.
In the age group 22-35 years, over 15% in the northern region and 13% in the southern region have access to higher education. In the north-central region, the number is just 10% for men and 6% for women whereas in the northeast, only 8% men and 4% women have access to higher education.

The report, brought out by the US-India Policy Institute in Washington, is based on data from the 64th round of NSSO survey 2007-08. It throws up quite a few other interesting facts. For instance, among communities, tribals and dalits fare worst with just 1.8% of them having any higher education. Muslims are almost as badly off, with just 2.1% able to go for further learning. Similarly, just 2% of the rural population is educated beyond higher secondary level, compared to 12% of the urban population and just 3% of women got a college education compared to 6% of men.
South India offers the best opportunities for socially inclusive access to higher education including technical education and education in English medium. For instance, the share of Hindu SC/ST in technical education in south India is about 22%, and the share of Muslims 25%. These were the lowest shares among all communities in south India. But this was higher than the share of most communities including Hindu OBCs and upper caste Hindus in most other regions. South India also has the highest proportion of higher education in the private sector at about 42%, followed by western India where it is 22%. The northeast has the least privatized higher education sector and is almost entirely dependent on government-run or aided institutions.

April 8, 2017 at 11:01 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Interpreting India's low HDI rank

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-interpreting-india-s-low-hdi-rank-2380419


HDI essentially is a composite index that integrates three basic dimensions of human development: ability to lead a long and healthy life; ability to acquire knowledge and ability to achieve a decent standard of living. The first dimension is captured by life expectancy at birth. Mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling combined capture the second, while Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (PPP in US$) captures the last dimension. Each dimension is then quantified as an index, calculated as the ratio between (Actual Value – Minimum Value)/(Maximum Value – Minimum Value). Note that the minimum and maximum values are fixed values (boundary limits), same for all the countries. These three indices are then aggregated and their geometric mean is taken as the HDI score for a particular country.

Let us take an example. For the year 2016, the Minimum Life Expectancy was fixed as 20 years and Maximum 85 years. India’s life expectancy was 68.3 years. Therefore, the Health Index for India would be computed as (68.3 – 20) / (85 - 20) = 0.743. Using a similar approach, the other two indices – education and income would be computed. Finally, the HDI score for India would be the geometric mean of all three indices. And this score would determine India’s relative rank across several countries. A higher HDI rank should ideally reflect better human development opportunities. Similarly, a year on year increase in HDI rank, would reflect an increase in a country’s relative performance.

However, there are several issues that complicate this. First, the HDI computation methodology itself keeps changing. As can be seen in the table (inset), earlier, Health index was measured by life expectancy at birth; Education index by a combination of adult literacy rate and gross school enrolment rates; and Income index by GDP per capita adjusted for PPP (in US$). Except the health index, methodology for computing the other two indices has now changed significantly. Second, simple arithmetic mean was used to compute HDI scores earlier. Now, geometric mean of each index provides the HDI score. Third, the number of countries for which data is collated also changes year on year. In 2010, there were 169 countries. This number increased to 188 in 2016. Fourth, there have been issues related to timelines of input data. For example, Life expectancy at birth for HDR 2013 corresponded to data for the year 2011. The HDR 2016, on the other hand, used the data for 2015. Especially for the social sectors, there are significant time-lags in data. Finally, and possibly the most serious concerns have been raised over the usage of only three dimensions and giving them equal weights while computing HDI. Experts argue that crucial variables such as political voice, democratic freedom, social connections and relationships, environmental sustainability, and economic/physical security are completely left out. On the other hand, equal weightage to all three indices pulls HDI score of countries like India down. Given the huge population base, India gets consistently low scores on GNI per capita. In fact, on this particular index, India’s score was very similar to that of Pakistan and Congo, but less than that of Iraq.

April 8, 2017 at 11:12 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Education chaper 10 from Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17


http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_17/10-Education.pdf

According to the Household Integrated Income
and Consumption Survey (HIICS)
National/Provincial levels with urban/rural
breakdown, the literacy rate of the popul
(10 years and above) remained at
compared to previous conducted PSLM Survey 2013-14

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Gross Enrolment Rate (GER), is also
the participation rate, defined as the number
children attending primary school
the number of children with specific age group
(5 to 9 years) who ought to be attending school
The overall GER at the Primary level for the
age group at National/Provincial
2015-16 recorded at 87 percent as compared to
90 percent in 2013-14 showing a decline of 3
percent. A cursory look at the table, GER
indicates that the only Sindh province has shown improvement of 2%

May 25, 2017 at 7:56 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan literacy rate dropped to 58% last year from 60% the year before.


From Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17 on education in chapter 10:

http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_17/10-Education.pdf
Literacy
According to the Household Integrated Income
and Consumption Survey (HIICS)
National/Provincial levels with urban/rural
breakdown, the literacy rate of the popuationl
(10 years and above) remained (58%) as
compared to previous conducted PSLM Survey
at National/Provincial level in 2013-14


From Economic Survey of Pakistan 2015-16 on education in chapter 10:


http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_16/10_Education.pdf


According to the latest Pakistan Social and Living
Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2015, the
literacy rate of the population (10 years and
above) is 60 percent as compared to 58 percent in
2014.


Gross Enrollment Rate dropped from 89% in 2014-15 to 87% in 2015-16


Net Enrollment Rate dropped from 57% in 2014-15 to 54% in 2015-16.

May 26, 2017 at 4:30 PM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

Should we double the education budget, or seek 100pc literacy?
AHMAD ALI | NADIA NAVIWALAUPDATED A DAY AGO
Pakistan has doubled its budget in recent years, but enrollment has stagnated. As a result of the inefficient use of funds, access to quality education for children across the country stands compromised.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1335342

In recent years, the federal and provincial governments have undertaken numerous reforms with varying levels of success. Despite their efforts, a lot remains to be done to get kids into school and improve learning in the classrooms.

To address these educational challenges, the efficient and effective use of the available budget for education is key.

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Provinces have allocated 17pc to 24pc of their budgets for education in 2016-17. (The provincial budgets for 2017-18 will be released in the coming weeks).


The ‘current budget’ is for salaries and operational costs (non-salary), whereas the ‘development budget’ is for the construction and rehabilitation of schools. Recent history suggests that provinces tend to under spend on development and non-salary budgets, but overspend on salaries, so that they end up utilising most of the education budget.


Unesco recommends that countries disburse 15pc to 20pc of their budgets on education. The global average is 14pc. Compared to its total national budget, Pakistan spends 13pc.

In Pakistan's case, this spending amounts to 2.83pc of the GDP on education. According to Alif Ailaan, an additional Rs400 billion on education is needed this year to increase spending to 4pc of GDP, bringing the education budget to Rs1.2 trillion.

Cutting a federal programme or collecting more taxes may help Pakistan towards that target. Cutting a federal programme or collecting more taxes may help Pakistan towards that target, but the dilemma of solving the education crisis will persist.

While Pakistan has doubled its budget and brought it closer to military spending, enrollment rates have stagnated.

Parents will send their kids to a private school, charging a few hundred rupees a month, if they can afford it. Nearly 40pc of students in Pakistan go to private schools. Their parents spend as much as the government does on education and tuition. If we add what Pakistani parents spend on education, Pakistan’s education spending exceeds 4pc of the GDP.

Children are out of school in Pakistan because they get so little out of going to school. Teachers are either absent, or present, but not teaching.

The 2015 report of the independent Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) finds that only 44pc of third graders in rural schools (public and private) can read a sentence in Urdu. Of those who stay in school through fifth grade, only 55pc can read a story in Urdu.

It is a similar story for science at a grade four level. In 2006, 67pc of students scored below average in the National Education Assessment System (NEAS) assessment of fourth grade science. The situation further deteriorated in 2014, when the most recent iteration of the NEAS assessment divulged that 79pc of students had scored below average.

The majority of children aged five to nine in Pakistan are in school. That’s 17 out of 22 million kids, according to the National Education Management System. Improving literacy and numeracy rates for them is our best shot at convincing the parents of Pakistan’s five million out-of-school children aged five to nine that school is worth it.

Overspending on salaries
Private school teachers are paid $25 to $50 per month. Government school teachers are paid $150 to $1,000 per month, according to a paper by SAHE and Alif Ailaan. Government school teachers have more education and training than private school teachers.

In light of the difference in teachers' salaries, private schools spend less than half of what the government does per child. However, according to LEAPS, children who go to private schools are one and a half to two grades ahead of those in government schools, depending on the subject.

May 31, 2017 at 10:15 AM  
Blogger Riaz Haq said...

#Karachi-#Hyderabad: M-9 #motorway likely to be opened on August 14 2017 #CPEC The Express Tribune

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1431001/karachi-hyderabad-m-9-likely-opened-august-14/

ISLAMABAD: The National Highway Authority (NHA) is all set to complete the Karachi-Hyderabad Motorway (M-9) by August this year, almost seven months ahead of its scheduled completion date.

The project is likely to be inaugurated on August 14, well before the time in view of its unusual importance as around 80% of the trade activities in the country are going to be linked with this route.

The cost of the project is Rs44 billion and, once completed, it is likely to bring a revolution in terms of connecting the country’s vital economic centres with the upcountry by facilitating the movement of heavy commercial vehicles originating from the Karachi Port and Port Qasim.

It will also facilitate the traffic coming from Karachi Northern Bypass (KNBP) and Makran Coastal Highway (MCH), say the documents available with The Express Tribune.

Connecting the country’s two important commercial centres – Karachi and Hyderabad – the M-9 will carry around 35 thousand vehicles every day. These vehicles include 18-20 thousand heavy commercial vehicles originating from Karachi Port and Port Qasim, according to the documents.

The project was started in September 2015 under public-private partnership as the government was short of funds to finance this project. The Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) is its contractor and concessionaire.

The first 80km-long section of the motorway has already been successfully completed. It was inaugurated in February 2017. “It is one of the mega projects on which the government has not spent a single penny,” said NHA spokesperson Kashif Zaman.

He said the M-9 was being built according to the best international standards along with a 200 km-long 4-lane service road, which means 2-lanes on either side of the motorway. “This is the first motorway in Pakistan that will have four-lane service roads on either side, as usually there is fencing,” he said.

He said it will have 8 new interchanges at Malir, Dumba Goth, Lucky Cement, Power Cement, Noriabad, Thano Bulla Khan and Bolari. These interchanges will link the adjoining areas with the motorway thus facilitating the movement and boosting economic activities.

Meanwhile, in order to facilitate smooth movement of traffic and minimise risks of accidents, provision of proper diversions has been ensured during the construction.

“The rest areas will be equipped with all essential facilities such as restaurant, medical centre, mosque, fuel station, mini workshop, business centres and toilets,” he added.

June 9, 2017 at 8:23 PM  

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