Sunday, July 31, 2016

Pakistan Translates GDP Growth to People's Welfare Better Than India

Pakistan does better than India and China in translating GDP growth to citizens' well-being, according to a 2016 Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report titled "From Wealth to Well Being".

One particular metric BCG uses is growth-to-well-being coefficient on which Pakistan scores 0.87, higher than India's 0.77 and China's 0.75. Among South Asian nations, Bangladesh scores much higher at 1.03. The top ten countries in “current well-being” remain in Western Europe.



The BCG report quotes American economist Simon Kuznets, the creator of the concept of GDP in 1934, who said: "The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from  measurement of national income".  It uses SEDA (sustainable economic development assessment) to score and rank countries.

The report uses 5 years worth of GDP growth data up to  2014 and compares it with improvements in citizens' well-being in the same period.

On the question of the ability to translate GDP growth to citizens' well-being,  Colin Hunter, Center for Research on Globalization, has written the following:

"India is home to over 340 million destitute people and is the second poorest country in South Asia after war-torn Afghanistan...In South Asia, Afghanistan has the highest level of destitution at 38%. This is followed by India at 28.5%. Bangladesh (17.2%) and Pakistan (20.7%) have much lower levels"

GDP growth and increases in per capita income and human development index are often used as indicators to represent improvements in the lives of ordinary people in developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Both of these have significant limitations which are addressed by Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)'s MPI, multi-dimensional poverty index.

The MPI brings together 10 indicators, with equal weighting for education, health and living standards (see table). If you tick a third or more of the boxes, you are counted as poor.

Source: Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative


Eradicating poverty in South Asia requires every person having access to safe drinking water, sanitation, housing, nutrition, health and education.

According to the MPI, out of its 1.2 billion-plus population, India alone is home to over 340 million destitute people and is the second poorest country in South Asia after war-torn Afghanistan, according to Colin Hunter of Canada-based Global Research.

Some 640 million poor people live in India (40% of the world’s poor), mostly in rural areas, meaning an individual is deprived in one-third or more of the ten indicators mentioned above (malnutrition, child deaths, defecating in the open).

 In South Asia, Afghanistan has the highest level of destitution at 38%. This is followed by India at 28.5%. Bangladesh and Pakistan have much lower levels. The study placed Afghanistan as the poorest country in South Asia, followed by India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal, according to Hunter.

Afghanistan is the poorest country in South Asia in terms of multi-dimensional poverty with 66% of its people being poor, followed by India with 54%, Bangladesh with 51%, Pakistan and Nepal at 44%, Bhutan at 27%, and Sri Lanka and the Maldives at 5%, according to Oxford researchers. Among 104 countries ranked by OPHI,  Nepal ranks 82, India 74, Bangladesh 73,  Pakistan 70, Sri Lanka 32 in MPI poverty.

Why has India lagged  behind its neighbors in spite of rapid economic growth in recent years? Here's how Hunter explains it: "The ratio between the top and bottom 10% of wage distribution has doubled since the early 1990s, when India opened up it economy. According to the 2011 Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development report ‘Divided we stand’, this has made India one of the worst performers in the category of emerging economies. The poverty alleviation rate is no higher than it was 25 years ago. Up to 300,000 farmers have committed suicide since 1997 due to economic distress and many more have quit farming."

What Colin Hunter hasn't clearly articulated is the fact that India remains home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates who lack even basic sanitation 67 years after the nation's independence from British colonial rule.

As the new Hindu Nationalist government under Narendra Modi begins its anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan campaigns so soon after inauguration, an Indian journalist  Pankaj Mishra reminds Indians  in a recent New York Times Op Ed that that "India’s reputation as a “golden bird” flourished during the long centuries when it was allegedly enslaved by Muslims. A range of esteemed scholars — from Sheldon Pollock to Jonardon Ganeri — have demonstrated beyond doubt that this period before British rule witnessed some of the greatest achievements in Indian philosophy, literature, music, painting and architecture".

It's time for Mr. Modi to shun his bellicose rhetoric (boli nahee goli--India's guns will do the talking) against Pakistan and focus on much more important issues of deep deprivation of his people.

Here's a video on Grinding Poverty in Resurgent India:

Haq's Musings Grinding Poverty in Resurgent India by faizanmaqsood1010
http://youtu.be/84-Qz4vFVHs



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan Sees Robust Growth in Energy, Autos, Cement and Steel

Depth of Deprivation in India

India Home to World's Largest Population of Poor, Hungry and Illiterates

Grinding Poverty in Resurgent India

An Indian Farmer Commits Suicide Every 30 Minutes

India's Israel Envy: What if Modi Attacks Pakistan?

India Teaching Young Students Akhand Bharat 

Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi

Monday, July 25, 2016

Pakistan Seeing Strong Growth in Consumption of Energy, Cement and Steel

Pakistan's energy consumption grew by 5.7% in 2015, faster than the 5.2% increase in neighboring India that claims significantly faster GDP growth. Primary energy consumption growth in a country is often seen as a strong indicator of its GDP growth. Ever since the advent of the industrial age, energy has become increasingly important as a driver of farms, factories, communication, transportation, construction, retail and other sectors of the economy.   In addition to energy, other important economic indicators include cement and steel consumption, auto sales and air travel which are also growing significantly faster in Pakistan than in India.

Pakistan Primary Energy Consumption Trend (Source: British Petroleum)

Primary Energy Consumption:

According to British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy released in June 2016,  the primary energy consumption in Pakistan rose to 78.2 million ton oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2015, compared with 73.2 MTOE in 2014 confirming greater economic activity. It was the third fastest growth in energy consumption in Asia. Only the Philippines (9.7%), Vietnam (9.6%) and Bangladesh (8.7%) saw faster growth than Pakistan's.

Domestic Cement Demand:

All-Pakistan Cement Manufacturers’ Association reported cement industry sold 33 million tons in domestic market in fiscal year 2015-16, posting a robust growth of 17.01 per cent compared to the 28.2 million tons sales during the same period in 2015.

Local Auto Production:

Domestic auto production in Pakistan jumped by 21.57 percent (vs 2.58% growth in India) in fiscal 2016 compared to fiscal 2015, according to data from Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association. The data collected by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) noted that as many as 168,363 jeeps and cars were manufactured during July-May (2015-16) while 138,490 units were produced last year(July-May 2014-15).

Rising Steel Demand:

Pakistan is experiencing 30% growth in steel imports, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. Local steel production is about 6 million tons. In addition, Pakistani imports of steel this year could surpass $2 billion as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC-related projects ramp up.

Air Travel Growth:

Pakistan air travel market is among the fastest growing in the world.  IATA (International Air Transport Association) forecasts Pakistan domestic air travel will grow at least 9.5% per year, more than 2X faster than the world average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the next 20 years. The Indian and Brazilian domestic markets will grow at 6.9% and 5.4% respectively.

Pakistan saw 23% growth in airline passengers in 2015, according to Anna Aero publication. Several new airports began operations or expanded and each saw double digit growth in passengers. However,  Gwadar Airport growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan.

The top 12 airports all saw large double digit increases. Multan  grew 64%, Quetta 62% and Faisalabad +61% all climbing one place as a result of all of them seeing a growth of over 60%. Turbat Airport in Balochistan is the newest airport to reach the top 12 in terms of traffic.


Mobile Broadband Uptake:

Mobile broadband subscriptions have rocketed from zero to over 30 million in just two years since 3G/4G service rollout in Pakistan. Rapid growth is continuing with over 1 million new subscribers are signing up for 3G and 4G services every month. An equal or larger number of smartphones are are being sold.

Summary:

A whole series of indicators from auto and steel to manufacturing and construction and telecom services are confirming that economic growth is accelerating in Pakistan. Among the reasons for this growth are significantly improved security situation, political stability and soaring Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in CPEC related energy and infrastructure projects.  These indicators are attracting investors who have already made Pakistan Stock Exchange the hottest shares market in Asia.  KSE-100, Pakistan's main shares index, is up 18% year-to-date compared to 6% increase in India's BSE-30 index. The challenge for Pakistan is to continue to improve security and political stability to reassure investors of superior returns from their investments in the country.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Politcal Stability Returns to Pakistan

Auto and Cement Demand Growth in Pakistan

Pakistan's Red Hot Air Travel Market

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor FDI

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions and Smartphone Sales

Pakistan in MSCI Emerging Market Index

Thursday, July 7, 2016

International Risk Consultancy Sees Continued Political Stability in Pakistan

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will survive Opposition's political challenges emanating from the Panama Leaks corruption allegations, according to an analysis by Eurasia Group, an international political risk consultancy that bills itself as "the world's largest political risk consultancy".

Eurasia Group's clients range from financial institutions to multinational corporations and government agencies. It has offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., London, Tokyo, São Paulo, and San Francisco.

Coming on the heels of the Eurasia Group report is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upward revision of Pakistan's GDP forecast to 5% for the current fiscal year 2016-17.  Pakistan's ETF (PAK) is up about 15% this year, reflecting MSCI’s recent announcement that it will add the country to the MSCI Emerging Market index, according to Barron's, Wall Street Journal's sister publication.

In Eurasia Group's analysis of Pakistan, its South Asia specialist Christopher Cannell has written as follows:

 “Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz party (PML-N) will remain in London until … the end of the month of Ramazan, recovering from heart surgery even as he faces fresh corruption allegations stemming from the Panama Papers. Yet while the mounting allegations will weaken Sharif’s political position at a time when he was not present to defend himself, he will continue to lead the PML-N and early elections are highly unlikely. …"

"The PML-N is likely to win the 2018 election with a reduced mandate … The contest to replace him will be complicated by corruption allegations against many main contenders within the PML-N, sparking worsening political instability after the election … Sharif’s … approval rating has experienced a non-negligible drop from 75% in October 2015 to 54% in June 2016, the only poll conducted after the leaks. However, Sharif’s political standing is grounded on the PML-N’s strength in parliament, the tacit support of the Army, and the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor – a set of infrastructure projects critical to Pakistan’s future economic performance—negotiated by Sharif and his PML-N. The PML-N remains the largest party in the lower house, and would not pass a motion of no-confidence in the PM, and it retains control of its Punjab heartland, the most populous area of Pakistan. …" 

Expectation of political stability is drawing increasing foreign investment to Pakistan. Two multinational giants acquired 2 Pakistani companies in just the last week alone as part of their growth strategy to establish presence in Pakistan.

Dutch dairy giant FrieslandCampina acquired 51 % of Karachi-based Engro Foods Limited, the second largest dairy producer in Pakistan. In the same week, Turkey's Arcelik announced purchase of Dawlance, Pakistan's market-leading home appliance maker.  Both cited opportunity for double-digit growth in the emerging market as the main reason for their acquisitions.

Smart money is starting to flow into Pakistan again as the world recognizes the country's new political stability and its tremendous economic potential as a growing emerging market.  Investors and businesses are looking to profit from expanding Pakistani economy backed by growing middle class consumption and rising Chinese investments in energy and infrastructure.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

China's Haier Expands Manufacturing in Pakistan

Japanese Multinationals Rank Pakistan Among Top Growth Markets

Chinese FDI in Pakistan For CPEC Projects

Pakistan Included in MSCI Emerging Market Index

Pakistan's Middle Class Grows to 55% of Population

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan Launches $8.2 Billion Rail Upgrade Project

Monday, July 4, 2016

Multinationals Buying Pakistani Companies to Profit From Growth

Two multinational giants acquired 2 Pakistani companies in just the last week alone as part of their growth strategy to establish presence in Pakistan.

Dutch dairy giant FrieslandCampina acquired 51 % of Karachi-based Engro Foods Limited, the second largest dairy producer in Pakistan. In the same week, Turkey's Arcelik announced purchase of Dawlance, Pakistan's market-leading home appliance maker.  Both cited opportunity for double-digit growth in the emerging market as the main reason for their acquisitions.

Pakistan's Emerging Market Upgrade:

Earlier in June, Morgan Stanley announced its decision that Pakistan's MSCI shares index will be upgraded from frontier to emerging market status. Pakistan's Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index has rallied 14% in 2016, making it Asia's best performing market so far this year in anticipation of the MSCI announcement.

Pakistan Dairy Market:

Pakistan is the third largest milk-manufacturing country in the world, with 38 billion liters on an annual basis, according to Retail Detail of Europe.  FrieslandCampina wants to take advantage of the shift to packaged dairy products in Pakistan: not even 10 % of milk consumption comes from processed and packaged milk in Pakistan, but FrieslandCampina expects that to change in the near future.

“Thanks to this well-organized and very successful company, we have obtained a strong position in the Pakistani dairy market. A growing middle class is switching to processed and packaged milk in Pakistan and Engro Foods provides a platform to build on. This acquisition will contribute to the value proposition we want to give our member dairy manufacturers. We will also help develop the agricultural industry in Pakistan with our extensive knowledge on the dairy manufacturing process and thanks to our Dairy Development Programme", CEO Roelof Joosten said.

To tap into the Pakistani market, FrieslandCampina is buying 51% of Engro Foods at an estimated price of $448 million, a securities filing said on Monday. Topline Securities said Engro Corporation will generate cash of around Rs. 47 billion, part of which will most likely be invested in energy-related projects with a higher rate of return, according to a report in  Pakistan's Express Tribune newspaper.

Home Appliance Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan's $3 billion home appliance market is experiencing double digit annual growth. It has attracted the attention of China's Haier, a multinational giant that recently acquired American General Electric's home appliance business.

Haier has 8 industrial complexes, two of which are foreign--one in the United States, and one in Pakistan,  according to  Xiaofei Li, the author of "China's Outward Foreign Investment: A Political Perspective". In these Special Economic Zones, Haier does localization to suit the needs of the consumers.  For Pakistani market, Haier especially designed a washer that can hold 15 long gowns at one time. There are many more such Special Economic Zones envisaged as part of the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor).  It will be essentially an industrial corridor spanning almost the entire length of the country from the Arabia sea coast to the Karakorams where it enters China via the Karakoram Highway (KKH), the word's highest paved road.

Pakistan's privately-held Dawlance is also a major player in Pakistan's home appliance market. It is Pakistan's leading refrigerator and microwave brand, No. 2 air conditioners and No. 3 in the laundry category. In  2015, it reported $221 million in revenue and $45 million in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), according to Nikkei Asian Review.


“Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world with a population of 200 million people. In particular its young population and increasingly growing economy make it an enticing prospect as a market in the region. With the acquisition of Dawlance in Pakistan, Arçelik will employ a total workforce of 30,000 worldwide and will have a global production base of 18 manufacturing facilities including Turkey, Romania, Russia, China, South Africa and Thailand. Our acquisition is also a powerful example of south-south cooperation, representing a technology and know-how transfer between developing countries,” said Fatih Ebiçlioğlu, the head of the Consumer Durables Group of Koç Holding that controls Arcelik, according to Turkey's Hurriyet Daily News.

Summary:

Smart money is starting to flow into Pakistan again as the world recognizes the country's tremendous economic potential as a growing emerging market.  Investors and businesses are looking to profit from expanding Pakistani economy backed by growing middle class consumption and rising Chinese investments in energy and infrastructure.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

China's Haier Expands Manufacturing in Pakistan

Japanese Multinationals Rank Pakistan Among Top Growth Markets

Chinese FDI in Pakistan For CPEC Projects

Pakistan Included in MSCI Emerging Market Index

Pakistan's Middle Class Grows to 55% of Population

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan Launches $8.2 Billion Rail Upgrade Project

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Terror in Bangladesh & Turkey; India’s Curry & Dal Crises; Pakistani Mangoes in America

Who terrorized Dhaka and Istanbul? Why were these cities targeted by terrorists? Is terror spreading farther and wider after recent foreign military interventions to check ISIS in Syria? Have mistakes by Muslim nations' governments contributed to the growing wave of terror? Can military force alone end it? If not, what else needs to be done? What kind of comprehensive strategy is needed?

Why is India suffering from curry and dal crises? Why are prices of dal, tomatoes. potatoes and other essential foods rising rapidly in India? What is Modi government doing to increase supply and ease rising food inflation in the country? What are its chances of success in short and long term?

Why are Pakistani mangoes becoming more easily and widely available in America? Are Pakistan mango exports finally ramping up? What took so long for Pakistani mangoes to arrive in significant quantities in Silicon Valley? Can 6 million strong Pakistani diaspora's demand drive greater Pakistani exports of mangoes and food other items?



Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/Lzx8I8C2MIo





http://dai.ly/x4jj855


Terror in Bangladesh & Turkey; India's Curry... by ViewpointFromOverseas
https://vimeo.com/173269056


Terror in Bangladesh & Turkey; India's Curry & Dal Crises; Pakistani Mangoes in America from Ikolachi on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Did the West Sow the Seeds of ISIS in Syria and Iraq?

Dal Crisis in South Asia

Pakistani Mangoes in America

Pakistani Diaspora

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel