Pakistan's Choice of Regional Economic Blocs: CAREC or SAARC or Both?

Pakistan sits between two economically very dynamic regions: Central Asia (and Western China) and South Asia. Which region is better suited for its economic connectivity and integration? Should Islamabad focus on CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) rather than SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation)?

Ideally, Pakistan should be a major player in both vibrant regions. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policy of attempting to isolate Pakistan has essentially forced it to choose.

First, Mr. Modi decided to boycott this year's SAARC summit that was scheduled to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. Then, he unsuccessfully attempted to hijack the BRICS economic summit in India to use it as a political platform to attack and isolate Pakistan.  The signal to Pakistan was unmistakable: Forget about SAARC.

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC):

CAREC is a growing group of nations that is currently made up of 11 members, including China and a list of STANs.   The current membership includes Afghanistan (joined CAREC in 2005), Azerbaijan (2003), People's Republic of China (1997), Georgia (2016), Kazakhstan (1997), Kyrgyz Republic (1997), Mongolia (2003, Pakistan (2010), Tajikistan (1998), Turkmenistan (2010) and Uzbekistan (1997).



The last ministerial meeting of CAREC nations was held in Islamabad in October, 2016. The conference theme was “Linking connectivity with economic transformation".

Welcoming fellow ministers, Pakistan's Finance Minister Ishaq Dar talked about the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to improve trade flow within the region and with the rest the rest of the world.

Dar said CPEC offered a massive opportunity for connectivity between Central Asia, Middle East and Africa and was bound to play a defining role in economic development of the regions. Dar said improving the transport corridor was not an end in itself but it was an investment in establishing sound infrastructure and complementary frameworks for shared prosperity of the present and future generations in the region, according to a report in Pakistani media.

CAREC Corridors:

CAREC region is building six economic corridors to link Central Asian nations. Six multi-national institutions support the CAREC infrastructure development, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank,  Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, according to Khaleej Times.

Out of the total $27.7 billion CAREC infrastructure investment so for, $9.9 billion or 36 per cent was financed by ADB, a senior officer of the Manila-based multinational bank told Khaleeej Times.

He said other donors had invested $10.9 billion while $6.9 billion was contributed by CAREC governments. Of these investments, transport got the major share with $8 billion or 78 per cent. Asian Development Bank Vice President Wencai Zhang said: "There are huge financing requirements in Carec for transport and trade facilitation, for which 108 projects have been identified at an investment cost of $38.8 billion for the period 2012-2020. Investment for the priority energy sector projects will be $45 billion in this period."

CPEC North-South Corridor:

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major part of the north-south corridor that will allow trade to flow among CAREC member countries, many of which are resource-rich but landlocked nations. The corridor will enable the group to access to the Pakistani seaports in Gwadar and Karachi as part of the new maritime silk route (MSR) as envisioned by China and Pakistan.

Pakistan's Finance Minister Dar says the CPEC would complement the regional connectivity initiatives of CAREC. "Once the six CAREC corridors and mega ports, now under construction, start operating, they will provide access to global markets. They will deliver services that will be important for national and regional competitiveness, productivity, employment, mobility and environmental sustainability. All of us should gear our national policies to achieve these targets."

CPEC consists of transport and communication infrastructure—roads, railways, cable, and oil and gas pipelines—that will stretch 2,700 kilometers from Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to the Khunjerab Pass at the China-Pakistan border in the Karakorams.

China and Pakistan are developing plans for an 1,800 kilometer international rail link from the city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in Western China to Pakistan's deep-sea Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea, according to Zhang Chunlin, director of Xinjiang's regional development and reform commission.



 "The 1,800-kilometer China-Pakistan railway is planned to also pass through Pakistan's capital of Islamabad and Karachi," Zhang Chunlin said at the two-day International Seminar on the Silk Road Economic Belt in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, according to China Daily.

"Although the cost of constructing the railway is expected to be high due to the hostile environment and complicated geographic conditions, the study of the project has already started," Zhang said. "China and Pakistan will co-fund the railway construction. Building oil and gas pipelines between Gwadar Port and China is also on the agenda," Zhang added.

Afghan Instability:

Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. A trilateral conference of China, Russia and Pakistan is scheduled this month in Moscow as part of this effort. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

Summary:

History shows that growth of regional and global trade in East Asia, Europe and North America regions has been a major driver of economic opportunity and prosperity.  Unfortunately, SAARC has been a huge disappointment for Pakistanis.  With the development of CPEC and CAREC, Pakistan can now begin to participate in the growth of regional and global trade that will benefit the people of Pakistan.  The path to Pakistan's participation in SAARC will open up if or when India-Pakistan relations improve.

Here's a National Geographic Documentary on CPEC:

https://youtu.be/q2lWYxbIBCs




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

1800 Km Pak-China Rail Link

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

CPEC to Create Over 2 Million Jobs

Modi's Covert War in Pakistan

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Growth Forecast

Gwadar as Hong Kong West

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor

Indian Spy Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Ex Indian Spy Documents RAW Successes Against Pakistan

Pakistan FDI Soaring with Chinese Money for CPEC


Comments

Riaz Haq said…
Global trade and capital flows flat or declining as globalization hits a wall.


Global capital flows:

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2016/11/the-retreat-of-financial-globalization/


Peter McQuade and Martin Schmitz of the European Central Bank investigate the decline in capital flows between the pre-crisis period of 2005-06 and the post-crisis period of 2013-14. They report that total inflows in the post-crisis period reached about 50% of their pre-crisis levels in the advanced economies and about 80% in emerging market economies. The decline is particularly notable in the EU countries, where inflows fell to only about 25% of their previous level. The steepest declines occurred in the capital flows gathered in the “other investment” category.


Global trade flows:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-15/what-it-will-take-for-trump-to-stop-globalization

This year has been full of news about the slowing or perhaps even end of globalization. The main evidence is that global trade volumes appear to have stopped rising, something that hardly ever happens outside of a recession. Still, if you step back a little, you can make a case that the globalization train is still chugging -- slowly -- along.


Last February, the McKinsey Global Institute put out a report on this rise of "digital globalization" and declared that:

Flows of physical goods and finance were the hallmarks of the 20th-century global economy, but today those flows have flattened or declined. Twenty-first-century globalization is increasingly defined by flows of data and information.
Riaz Haq said…
#Russia and #Pakistan slowly move towards an embrace. #India #China #CPEC #Gwadar @AJEnglish
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/12/russia-pakistan-slowly-move-embrace-161203083811644.html

Or, how Russia got a warm-water port without firing a shot.

Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and the author of five books on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia. His latest book is 'Pakistan on the Brink, the future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West'.

After decades of hostility, Russia and Pakistan are gingerly trying to improve relations. Russia is cautiously wooing Pakistan in a bid to temper Islamabad's support for the Afghan Taliban and to end the civil war in Afghanistan, which is threatening Central Asia - the soft underbelly of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union territories.

Pakistan faces increasing isolation in the region - spurned by India, Afghanistan and Iran, and criticised by the US and NATO countries - because of its continued harbouring of the Afghan Taliban. At present, it is solely dependent on Chinese economic and political support.

It is not surprising, therefore, that Pakistan is desperately keen to rebuild relations with Russia. Islamabad would like to use warmer ties with Moscow to counter US and western pressure and be able to boast of more than one ally in the region.

-----

Pakistan offered Russia the use of Gwadar, its new Chinese-built port on the Gulf, which is close to Iran and opposite Oman. From Tsarist times, Russia has always wanted a port in the ''warm waters'' of the Gulf. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan was convinced that the Russian dream was to have a base on Pakistan's Gulf coastline. Ironically, Pakistan is now offering the same facility.

However, Gwadar port is yet to become fully operational and it is surrounded by insurgencies in Afghanistan and Balochistan province. Its capacity is being enhanced by a Chinese-built network of roads that will eventually connect to the Chinese border in northern Pakistan.

Use of the port by foreign ships is still some way off, and Pakistan has not made it clear if it would allow Russian warships to dock there. The Chinese navy has already been granted landing rights at the port.

Russia has also agreed to sell helicopters to Pakistan, lifting its decades-old arms embargo against Islamabad, while India is now looking for arms from Western nations such as the US and France.

Riaz Haq said…
#Modi's Hawkish #Hindu Nationalist #Indian Minister Rajnath wants to break #Pakistan in 10 parts. http://ecoti.in/bnqceb via @economictimes

Home Minister Rajnath Singh today slammed Pakistan for its continuous support to terrorists and ceasefire violations and warned that it will break into 10 parts if it persists with its current policy.

Till now Pakistan got divided into two parts but if it won't mend its way, perhaps it will break into 10 parts, Rajnath Singh said here today.

However, he added, India will have no hand in that.

"India is the only country that never wanted to occupy a ..

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55923101.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan Turns to #China in #Energy Binge With $21 Billion Investment. #Electricity #CPEC http://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-turns-to-china-in-energy-binge-1482062404 … via @WSJ


More than 10,000 Chinese workers are now building at least 10 partly Beijing-financed energy projects across Pakistan that are set to grow the country’s energy output by 60% within two years in the first major boost to supply in two decades.Mr. Sharif’s government plans to inaugurate a nuclear plant this month and a pipeline network in January that will carry large-scale gas imports upcountry.


“Never in the history of Pakistan has there been such a big package of electricity plants in the pipeline,” said Syed Akhtar Ali, in charge of energy at the Planning Commission, the ministry tasked with long-term development.

Mr. Sharif’s promise to solve the electricity crisis propelled him to office at a time when the energy deficit was knocking some 2 percentage points off growth, economists say, stifling industry and leaving school children to study by candlelight.

Pakistan’s economic growth has risen to almost 5% annually under Mr. Sharif’ and his government set a 7% target for the years ahead. That, his government hopes, will boost the moribund private sector, reduce unemployment and provide youth with more alternatives to extremism.

The energy plan is a centerpiece of that economic aspiration. Mr. Sharif is racing to fulfill his pledge and become the first incumbent to be re-elected in a country whose voters—or the interventionist military—have long ousted its leaders for their poor performance. Mr. Sharif, who led Pakistan twice before in the 1990s, hasn’t previously even completed a term in office.

“Electric power is going to be the swing factor in the election,” said Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, the minister for petroleum. “If we don’t deliver on power, we won’t be seen as having delivered.”

Mr. Sharif’s plan depends heavily on ​China, which​ is translating its long-term strategic ties with Pakistan into an economic partnership, part of a broader infrastructure push across Eurasia. China is financing many plants as commercial investments. But to expedite projects, the Pakistani government is funding ​some​ power stations in the run up to the election, including three gas-fired plants in Mr. Sharif’s home province of Punjab. The eventual aim is to more than double Pakistan’s current output of around 16,000 megawatts.

By comparison, Washington’s multibillion-dollar civilian aid program for Pakistan has been far less ambitious, adding 1,000 megawatts to the country’s power generation in recent years by enhancing existing power stations.

The plan is to add 10,000 megawatts of the new China-backed infrastructure, a mixture of coal, gas and hydro electricity, by early 2018, months before elections, at a cost of $21 billion. The schedule is tight. The massive amounts of natural gas and coal needed for the plants require an extensive delivery system of ports, pipelines and railways. The country also needs to upgrade its power distribution network to be able to carry the extra electricity.


“My concern is that gaps in longer term planning, including much needed structural, regulatory and market reforms, will once again fall by the wayside in the euphoria of having achieved a temporary electricity supply surplus,” said Jamil Masud, a partner at Hagler Bailly Pakistan, an energy consultancy,

---
At Karachi’s Port Qasim, a $2 billion coal-fired plant is taking shape. After only 1.5 years under construction, one 400-foot high cooling tower is up and the second is almost complete. The hulking metal frames for the boilers are in place and a jetty for imported coal is taking shape. Around 4,000 people work on the site, 24 hours a day—half of them Chinese workers who aren’t allowed to step outside its boundary.

On the other side of the port, a massive tanker ship serves as a terminal for liquefied natural gas imports, which are piped across Pakistan. Three more terminals are planned by the government.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan #Railway track upgrade to include overpasses, underpasses & grade separation for high-speed trains #CPEC https://www.geo.tv/latest/124093-Railway-tracks-to-be-made-gate-free-and-signal-free-under-CPEC …

LAHORE: Railway tracks from Karachi to Peshawar will be made gate-free and signal-free under the next phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Geo News reported, citing sources.

A fence would be built around the tracks, similar to Motorway, and an underpass or overheard bridge would be built at every gate on the tracks, the sources said.

Work on the project would be initiated from January. The first phase of the project would focus on railway tracks between Rawalpindi and Peshawar.

The signaling system in Pakistan Railways will also be upgraded under the project.

According to the sources, the purpose behind making railway tracks gate-free and signal-free is to make train journeys safer and faster for the public. The fencing and bridges would also lead to a reduction in accidents.

Once the project is completed, the tracks would be able to accommodate high-speed trains. The railways authorities have completed the planning for the project, the sources added.
Riaz Haq said…
#Russia's tilt towards #Pakistan will be a body blow for #India's security. #China #Afghanistan http://www.dailyo.in/politics/isis-india-pak-ties-russia-pakistan-afghanistan-ties-cpec-china-taliban/story/1/14918.html … via @dailyo_

At a high-level meeting held in Moscow on December 27, 2016, representatives from Russia, China and Pakistan underlined the growing influence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Afghanistan and the deteriorating security situation in the region.

According to the statement issued at the end of the meeting: "The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China as the UN Security Council permanent members confirmed their flexible approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and Taliban."

What has surprised everyone is the exclusion of Afghanistan from the negotiations, apparently aimed at discussing the security situation in conflict-ridden Afghanistan. This trilateral initiative stands in open contrast to the publicly-stated positions of all the countries of supporting the Afghan-owned and Afghan-led reconciliation process. Sensing the mounting Afghan opposition, the group has finally decided to include Afghanistan in the next meeting. While Iran is soon going to be part of the group, there is no proposal to involve India.

Much to India's disappointment, the emerging axis between Moscow, Islamabad and Beijing seems to have put Pakistan in the driver's seat, according it greater control over the future of Afghanistan.

Russia's diplomatic efforts to accommodate the Taliban as an instrument against the ISIS, in tandem with Pakistan and China, may also have unexpected ramifications for Indo-Russian ties. The Indian leadership, both publicly and behind diplomatic corridors, has been trying to convince Russia that Pakistan is the fountainhead of terrorism in the region. But India's traditional ally Russia is not convinced.

Even though Russia' diplomatic engagement with the Taliban has begun to strain Moscow-Kabul ties, as well as put Russia's historic and strategic partnership with India at great risk, Moscow's engagement with the Taliban is driven by a number of counterterrorism and security reasons.

Russian foreign policymakers believe that engagement with the Taliban is essential for maintaining long-term political stability in Afghanistan; Moscow can use the Taliban's opposition to Islamic State (ISIS) to further Russia's counter-terrorism objectives; and Pakistan's role is crucial in bringing peace to war-torn Afghanistan.

The Russian leadership views the Taliban as a useful partner in its fight against the ISIS. Putin has long worried about jihadists from former Soviet republics joining the ISIS' fight in Syria. For this very reason, Russia sees ISIS as a particular threat in a way it doesn't see Taliban.
Riaz Haq said…
#China makes worldwide ports' investments as great maritime power. #CPEC #Gwadar #Pakistan https://ig.ft.com/sites/china-ports … … via @F

Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is perched on the world’s energy jugular. Sea lanes nearby carry most of China’s oil imports; any disruption could choke the world’s second-largest economy.

Owned, financed and built by China, Gwadar occupies a strategic location. Yet Islamabad and Beijing for years denied any military plans for the harbour, insisting it was a purely commercial project to boost trade. Now the mask is slipping.

“As Gwadar becomes more active as a port, Chinese traffic both commercial and naval will grow to this region,” says a senior foreign ministry official in Islamabad. “There are no plans for a permanent Chinese naval base. But the relationship is stretching out to the sea.”

Gwadar is part of a much bigger ambition, driven by President Xi Jinping, for China to become a maritime superpower. An FT investigation reveals how far Beijing has already come in achieving that objective over the past six years.

Investments into a vast network of harbours across the globe have made Chinese port operators the world leaders. Its shipping companies carry more cargo than those of any other nation — five of the top 10 container ports in the world are in mainland China with another in Hong Kong. Its coastguard has the globe’s largest maritime law enforcement fleet, its navy is the world’s fastest growing among major powers and its fishing armada numbers some 200,000 seagoing vessels.

The emergence of China as a maritime superpower is set to challenge a US command of the seas that has underwritten a crucial element of Pax Americana, the relative period of peace enjoyed in the west since the second world war. As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take power, strategic tensions between China and the US are already evident in the South China Sea, where Beijing has pledged to enforce its claim to disputed islands and atolls. Rex Tillerson, the Trump nominee for US secretary of state, said on Wednesday that Washington should block Beijing’s access to the islands. Relations were also dented over Mr Trump’s warm overtures toward Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province.

China understands maritime influence in the same way as Alfred Thayer Mahan, the 19th century American strategist. “Control of the sea,” Mr Mahan wrote, “by maritime commerce and naval supremacy, means predominant influence in the world; because, however great the wealth of the land, nothing facilitates the necessary exchanges as does the sea.”

Drummed into military service

The Gwadar template, where Beijing used its commercial know-how and financial muscle to secure ownership over a strategic trading base, only to enlist it later into military service, has been replicated in other key locations.

In Sri Lanka, Greece and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, Chinese investment in civilian ports has been followed by deployments or visits of People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels and in some cases announcements of longer term military contingencies.

“There is an inherent duality in the facilities that China is establishing in foreign ports, which are ostensibly commercial but quickly upgradeable to carry out essential military missions,” says Abhijit Singh, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “They are great for the soft projection of hard power.”

Data compiled or commissioned by the Financial Times from third-party sources show the extent of China’s dominance in most maritime domains.

Riaz Haq said…
#India must join #China #Pakistan One Belt, One Road #CPEC initiative to stay in the game via @htTweets

http://www.hindustantimes.com/columns/india-must-involve-itself-in-the-china-pakistan-one-belt-one-road-initiative-to-stay-in-the-game/story-uTtxhRzcn8iCnUHsB91haJ.html

The recently held strategic dialogue between India and China provides a useful reality check on the state of the play. Over the past year, the relationship had reached an impasse owing to China’s unwillingness to support India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group and to allow Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed to be placed on the United Nations Security Council’s terror list.

In both cases India had insisted that these were litmus tests of its ties with China. New Delhi’s stance stemmed from an under-estimation of the growing importance of Pakistan to China and from an over-estimation of its own clout. If the former underscored the inability of the government to get the measure of China-Pakistan convergence, the latter flowed from the curious belief that international influence was mostly about talking ourselves up.

-------------

The prospect of a trade war sparked off by Trump’s imposition of tariffs is surely a major cause for concern to the Chinese leadership. But they also know that United States does not hold all the chips. For one thing, China can retaliate against American exports on a range of things from aircraft to soya bean. More importantly, American tariffs will undercut global value chains and the accompanying deep integration of regulatory systems — commercial laws, taxation, intellectual property rights — fostered assiduously by the US in the past.

While this will hurt China in the short run, it also provided Beijing an opening to reorient economic integration in Asia under its leadership and on more congenial terms.

The collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the rolling out of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative have already provided Beijing the perfect setting in which to pursue a more ambitious agenda of Asian connectivity and integration. Chinese economists have also mooted ideas to channel a greater portion of Asian savings into investments in Asia — instead of persisting with the current pattern of effectively sending those savings to the US and allowing American banks and financial institutions to reinvest them in Asia. All this will take time and enormous effort, but the Chinese are well poised.

Politically, too, Beijing will stand to gain from Trump’s attitude towards longstanding partners in Asia. If an ally like Australia — which stood by the US even during the Vietnam War — came in for rough treatment, what are the odds that others are going to have smooth relationship with the Trump administration? To be sure, many of these countries will continue to be concerned about China but the emergence of countervailing coalitions may become difficult.

Unlike Beijing, New Delhi does not have many cards to play. Despite repeated expressions of interest, India’s record in fostering economic integration even in the subcontinent is underwhelming. Further, New Delhi has firmly refused to sign up to the Chinese OBOR initiative. The two sides did, however, discuss the possibility of cooperating on developmental activities in Afghanistan. Again, while this is welcome, New Delhi should recognise that Beijing does not really need to work with it in Afghanistan.
Riaz Haq said…
A caitionary tale of #Pakistan's trade with #Kyrgyzystan in #CentralAsia. #Karachi #Bishkek #China #Afghanistan https://www.geo.tv/latest/134951-From-Karachi-to-Kyrgyz-a-made-in-Pakistan-story …

What connection does Naryn, a remote sparsely-populated mountain town in the Kyrgyz Republic, have with Karachi?

Located at a five-hour drive from the capital Bishkek, the sleepy town with a population of under 35,000, looks nothing like Pakistan. Other than the recently inaugurated campus of the University of Central Asia, even Google won't give you anything special about Naryn.

But Karachi-born Syed Mahir Shehzad has left his mark on the picturesque Central Asian mountain town.

From classrooms to the library, student dormitories to faculty and staff residences, Shehzad's Karachi-based office décor company has supplied every piece of high-end furniture at the 13,927 square metre UCA campus—almost all of it made in Pakistan.

"It was challenging for us not just in the sense that we had to compete with leading European companies, we—or pretty much any furniture company in Pakistan—had never exported to Kyrgyzstan," says the 36-year-old owner of Dimensions, which manufactures and assembles state-of-the-art modern office furniture competing with some of the leading brands in the world.

"We sourced some of our material from China, Malaysia and Indonesia, but a majority of it was assembled and manufactured in Pakistan, which we then mostly exported via trucks through the Pak-China border at Sust and then onwards to Naryn."

Owing to vast amounts of natural resources underexploited during the Soviet era, the five CACs –Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – make Central Asia a US$339-billion, 68 million-strong economy with varying levels of purchasing power and a largely untapped market.

But trade with Central Asian countries amounts to only a fraction of Pakistan’s dwindling exports, recorded at $26 billion in 2015.

----

Because of the uncertain security situation, Shehzad chose not to take the Pak-Afghan route.

"When we first got the project last year, we had no idea how we would export our goods to Kyrgyzstan. These are countries that we had never even thought of visiting, let alone export to. We faced a lot of trouble in even finding a logistics company that could transport our goods there," says Shehzad.

While Central Asia is becoming an increasingly important region, connecting Europe to South and West Asia, it can also be a challenging region for many new-to-the-market traders and investors.

Customs clearance in Central Asia is often said to be overburdened, with bureaucratic obstacles, arbitrary seizures of goods, excessive documentation, and a lack of proper protocols leading to significant delays.

With little support or guidance from the government authorities, Pakistani exporters face the same hurdles in reaching this largely untapped virgin territory.

"There was a lot of documentation. Our first containers got stuck in China shortly after crossing the Sust border. With only weeks to go for the launch of the campus, I had to wait for almost three weeks in Bishkek to face the nervous clients, before our transporter somehow managed to clear the trucks and bring them to Kyrgyzstan," says Shehzad.

Fortunately, after the first consignment, Shehzad says it took only five days for the rest of the trucks to reach Naryn from Karachi. "We were just ecstatic when the first trucks finally reached. From there on, it was just a matter of time. Even our clients were extremely proud."

The strategic Central Asia region can be a key market for Pakistani products, with lower labour costs in Pakistan giving the country a competitive advantage over European manufacturers
Riaz Haq said…
#India & #Pakistan in 8-member #SCO a boon for regional stability, development. #China #Russia #SCOsummit @XHNews http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/08/c_136349784.htm …

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will witness its first-ever expansion at the upcoming Kazakhstan summit.
The inclusion of India and Pakistan, both major countries in the region, demonstrates the organization's growing appeal.
Once New Delhi and Islamabad officially in, the eight-member bloc will then cover nearly half of the world's population and three-fifths of the Eurasian continent. Its role in promoting regional stability and prosperity would thus be greatly boosted.
Since its founding in 2001, the SCO has encountered numerous naysayers and critics who have questioned its motives, principles and development.
Yet the organization's steadfast commitments to peace and growth in some of the world's most volatile nations have remained unshaken over the years.
That's because the SCO countries have shared great needs to maintain peace and security in the region, and even greater needs to foster faster economic development. These common interests outweigh their differences in political systems, cultures, social textures and levels of economic development.
After India and Pakistan are admitted to the SCO, they will enjoy broader anti-terrorism intelligence sharing with other partners within the bloc.
A mature multilateral mechanism such as the SCO will also help the two countries strengthen their trust-building process and enable them to work together to combat their common enemy -- terrorism.
Moreover, the SCO could also serve as a platform to better promote their shared economic and trade development, especially cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.
"The SCO has never been just a security group from the beginning. The Belt and Road Initiative offers a timely and convenient framework for the SCO members to facilitate connectivity and ultimately, achieve free flows of goods, capital, service and technology," said Sheng Shiliang, a researcher at the Xinhua Center for World Affairs Studies.
Sun Zhuangzhi, secretary-general of the SCO Research Center affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said "comprehensive cooperation at all levels as part of the regional integration process is unstoppable. India cannot keep itself from this general trend for too long, it will come and join in like this time, sooner or later."
The impressive performance of the SCO in the past 16 years deserves greater global confidence in its ability to dispel doubts and divergences.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping and other heads of state gather in Astana for the SCO summit on Thursday and Friday, the world can expect that the organization, by absorbing two major regional countries, can help promote regional unity in the quest for a more secure and prosperous future.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan uses Iran corridor to transit fruits to Central Asia

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/26/c_136853593.htm

Recently major consignment of fruits from Pakistan to Kazakhstan has been transited through Iran which could open a new corridor for shipment of food items from Southeast Asia to markets as far as Russia, IRAN Daily reported on Tuesday.

The consignment that comprised 350 tons of tangerines was railed to Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan from Pakistan's Quetta and is on its way to the port city of Octave in Kazakhstan. It would be then loaded on ships to be transited to Russia, the report said.

In April, the first transit consignment from Quetta was sent to Octave through the same route. It comprised potatoes, mango, tangerine and rice, Press TV wrote.

Pakistan is expected to transit as much as one million tons of goods through Zahedan-Quetta railway every year, Majid Arjoni, the director general for Iran's Southeast Railway Department, said.

The railway is 650 kilometers long and it takes almost 33 hours for trains to travel between the two cities.

Iran hopes to use rail track for the transit of goods from its southeastern port of Chabahar to Central Asia and Europe in what would eventually become a major East-West corridor.

The project to develop Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar started in 2007 through investment of one billion U.S. dollars and President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated the port project early this month.

According to the report, the annual cargo tonnage of the port is currently almost as high as 8.5 million tons.

It can also accommodate 100,000-tonne ships, what officials say can help promote the country's international trade activities.

The overall development of the project will bring the port's total annual cargo capacity to 82 million tonnes.
Riaz Haq said…
INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES SHOULD REVISIT THEIR OPPOSITION TO CHINA-LED CONNECTIVITY
ARIF RAFIQ


https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/india-united-states-need-rethink-opposition-china-led-connectivity/


But neither Belt and Road nor CPEC is a strategic ploy masquerading as investments, as some allege. CPEC specifically has a real and powerful economic logic for Pakistan, China, and even India. The corridor does offer China some indirect strategic benefits — it consolidates Beijing’s alliance with Islamabad and reduces its dependence on the Malacca chokepoint. But CPEC is ultimately about economics. It not only raises the potential for cross-border Sino-Pak trade, it also enhances Pakistan’s ability to trade with the outside world beyond China. Most of the nodes that constitute the project’s road network bolster Pakistan’s domestic connectivity and with the outside world.

In fact, the aforementioned Karachi-Lahore Motorway resembles India’s own planned Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and runs parallel to it. Much like the Indian highway, the Karachi-Lahore Motorway cuts transport time between Pakistan’s two largest cities. There are also planned industrial zones along the route. And the Karachi-Lahore Motorway will be complemented by upgrades to Pakistan’s main rail line.

Not only do the two highways run parallel to one another, CPEC can potentially fill the gaps in between. For example, with the completion of the Karachi-Lahore Motorway in 2020, Karachi could be the fastest route to sea by road for traders in Amritsar in India’s Punjab state. Additionally, with the completion of the Karakoram Highway realignment, traders in northwestern India may also be able to access western China’s markets more readily through Pakistan, potentially reducing the trade deficit with China that India routinely complains about. While India often thinks of Pakistan as an overland trade route to Afghanistan, there is also potential for India-China transit trade through Pakistan.

Indian commentators, such as Singh, also describe the Gwadar port as a strategic project that is not economically viable. But in fact, that is a more accurate description of India’s Chabahar port project. Gwadar may be able to absorb some of China’s transshipment with the Persian Gulf and East Africa and host industries like mineral processing and petrochemicals. Meanwhile, Chabahar is oriented around Afghanistan, a narco-state whose documented economy has grown at an annual average 1.65% over the past four years, according to the World Bank. India has used Chabahar to send food aid to Afghanistan to bypass the Pakistan transit route and replace Pakistan as Afghanistan’s primary source of imported wheat. But the fact that Indian wheat had to be sent to Afghanistan fully subsidized indicates that the prospects for Chabahar-based Afghanistan trade are dim.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan transfers 'state-of-the-art 'Jinnah #Hospital in #Kabul to #Afghan govt. Other #health facilities gifted by Pakistan in #Afghanistan include Nishtar Kidney Center in Jalalabad and under-construction 100-bed Naeb Aminullah Khan Hospital in Logar. https://www.dawn.com/news/1477343

The Government of Pakistan on Saturday officially handed over the Kabul-based Jinnah Hospital to Afghanistan, according to a press release issued by the Foreign Office.

The FO said that Afghan Vice-President Sarwar Danish, Afghan Minister of Public Health Dr Ferozuddin Feroz and Pakistani Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs, Ali Muhammad Khan, jointly inaugurated the "200-bed state-of-the-art" hospital in a ceremony held in Kabul today.

Khan, the Pakistani representative, expressed hope that the Jinnah Hospital — completed at a cost of $24 million — would be a "substantial contribution" to the health sector of Afghanistan.

The minister, as per the press release, also conveyed Prime Minister Imran Khan's message that Pakistan would continue to take all possible measures for the welfare of the people of Afghanistan, adding that the premier wished to see a "stable, secure, peaceful, prosperous and sovereign Islamic Republic of Afghanistan".

Afghan minister Dr Feroz expressed his gratitude for the "generous gift" and appreciated "Pakistan’s immense assistance in the health sector," which also includes the Nishtar Kidney Center in Jalalabad and the under-construction 100-bed Naeb Aminullah Khan Hospital in Logar.

Pakistan's Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zahid Nasrullah Khan, said that the Jinnah Hospital was a "flagship project" of the nation's US$1 billion development assistance to Afghanistan, which according to the press release, was in "in pursuance of Pakistan’s policy objective of deepening and broadening people-to-people connections between the two countries".
Riaz Haq said…
#Modi's shift from #SAARC to Bimstec.Saarc leaders at Modi's swearing-in as PM in 2014. #BIMSTEC leaders for Modi's second oath taking ceremony on May 30. #India #Pakistan #SouthAsia https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/story-behind-narendra-modi-s-shift-from-saarc-to-bimstec-1536707-2019-05-28 via @indiatoday

India has invited the leaders of Bimstec countries, extending it to Kyrgyzstan President and Mauritian premier for Narendra Modi's swearing-in as prime minister on May 30.

Five years ago, the oath taking ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was witnessed by top Saarc (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) leaders.

The occasion was the showpiece event of PM Modi's neighbourhood diplomacy. It began with optimism particularly in the context of Pakistan.

It was followed by unusual gestures including a mid-air diversion to then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's family function and an unscheduled meeting during Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan's capital Astana in 2017.

Why this shift?

A series of cross-border terror (Pathankot, Uri and Pulwama) attacks hampered Modi's neighbourhood push in diplomacy. The Modi government has gone back to "talks and terror can't go together" stand putting India-Pakistan relation on a freeze. This was reflected in his invitation to leaders for his second oath-taking ceremony.

It appears that Bimstec was not on PM Modi's agenda till September 2016, when Pakistan-based terrorists targeted Uri base camp of the army. Uri terror attack jolted Modi government's trust in Pakistani leadership of fighting terror.

At Brics (Brazail, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Goa, PM Modi also hosted an outreach summit with Bimstec leaders in October 2016. This was the first big push under the Modi government to India-Bimstec relationship.

So, when the Modi government boycotted November 2016 Saarc summit in Islamabad, almost all Bimstec countries supported India. Summit was postponed, Pakistan stood isolated in the grouping and India claimed diplomatic victory on the issue of terrorism.

Following the sudden change in regional equation, Bimstec emerged as a platform of neighbourhood engagement involving five of Saarc members and two Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) constituents.

In 2017 Bimstec summit, PM Modi announced, "It is a natural platform to fulfill our key foreign policy priorities of Neighborhood First and Act East."

What is Bimstec?

Bimstec, standing for the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, is a regional grouping of Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan and Nepal.

Formed in 1997 with an aim to integrate littoral economies of the Bay of Bengal, Bimstec originally had only Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan became its part later.

Currently, it includes all key South Asian nations except Afghanistan, Maldives and Pakistan. Many experts view it as India's effort to create an alternative mechanism to trouble-torn Saarc.

Bimstec is strategically significant for India as China has diverted its attention to the Bay of Bengal with greater assertion. The Bay of Bengal acts like a funnel to the Malacca Strait, a major trade route for China, which has also undertaken massive infrastructure projects in Bimstec countries except India and Bhutan.

The Bay of Bengal is the route for about 25 per cent of global trade and has huge untapped resources especially in the energy sector - massive reserve of natural gas, the future of power supply. India's robust relation with Bimstec will give it extra leverage in the Bay of Bengal region over China and other major powers.
Riaz Haq said…
UNIFICATION OF SOUTH ASIA L• . C
S SEPE 0 1 1994.
F
A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army
Command and General Staff College in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree
MASTER OF MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE
by
HARDEV SINGH, LT COL, INDIAN ARMY
M.Sc., Defence Studies, Madras University, 1988


Fort Leavenworth, Kansas
1994


https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a284652.pdf


India's neighbors compel
them to view India as being a common foe. Pakistan which is
the only country in the region which can, to some extent,
challenge Indian hegemony, has greatly benefitted by such
perceptions of other countries. Due to the Kashmir issue,
Pakistan has viewed India as an enemy country right from the
time of partition in 1947 when they fought their first war
over Kashmir. Pakistan's claim to Kashmir is based on the
religion. Islam, a rallying point for separate statehood
for Indian Muslims during the British days, continues to be
the essential element of Pakistan's foreign policy
formulation. Therefore, the fear of militarily and
industrially powerful India representing potential Hindu
domination has remained the essence of Pakistan's South
Asian outlook. Consequently, the defence policy of Pakistan
has revolved around the central theme of containing Indian
attempts to achieve regional hegemony

--------------------

No Hegemon Anymore
The unified South Asian nation would also put an end
to the present problem of India trying to acquire the status
of a hegemon among the other smaller South Asian countries.
The problem of Indian hegemony is such that it can not be
resolved easily under the present political division of
South Asia. Presently, to end this problem, it requires,
that either India become extremely strong compared to her
59
neighbors, so that they start acknowledging India's hegemon
status or some other state, most probably, Pakistan becoming
equally strong as India. However, there is not even a
remote possibility of either of the above occurring in a
foreseeable future. Compared to its neighbors, India's
elements of national power are much greater and it would be
extremely difficult for Pakistan to acquire status equal to
that of India.
On the other hand, despite her strong elements of
national power, India is still ridden with too many problems
to achieve an absolute hegemony in the region. In any case
such an absolute hegemony may be impossible to achieve
because of the international politics such as aid to
Pakistan from the Islamic countries, China or the USA. In
an unified South Asian nation, the people would be able to
identify themselves with the nation, more intensely, due to
its strength and size. There would not be any compulsions,
like the present, for the smaller nations to gang up to
counter the hegemonic tendencies of the big neighbor, India,
as there would be just one unified nation, of which they and
India would be parts of
Riaz Haq said…
WORLD BANK LOANS $406MN TO #PAKISTAN FOR MOTORWAY between #Peshawar and #Kabul, thru Khyber Pass, as part of Corridors 5 and 6 of Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (#CAREC) of #Afghanistan, #Tajikistan and #Uzbekistan with Pakistan & Arabian Sea. https://www.newsweekpakistan.com/world-bank-loans-406mn-to-pakistan-for-kpec/

THE KHYBER PASS ECONOMIC CORRIDOR WILL COMPRISE A 48KM, 4-LANE MOTORWAY CONNECTING PESHAWAR TO TORKHAM
The World Bank on Friday inked an agreement with Pakistan for a loan of over $406 million to construct the Khyber Pass Economic Corridor Project.

Witnessed by Economic Affairs Minister Hammad Azhar in Islamabad, the loan agreement aims to facilitate the construction of a 48km, 4-Lane, dual carriageway high-speed motorway connecting Peshawar to Torkham.

Under the proposed project, regional connectivity would improve by facilitating commercial traffic and economic activities between Pakistan and Afghanistan would be boosted. It would also promote private sector development along the corridor and is expected to generate up to 100,000 new jobs in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

The project envisages the use of public-private partnership and private financing to develop clusters of economic activity, economic zones and expressways. According to state-run Associated Press of Pakistan, the connecting transport infrastructure and economic zones will provide a strong foundation for private businesses to invest in these zones.

The expressway between Peshawar and Kabul, through the Khyber Pass, represents a section of Corridors 5 and 6 of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC). Corridor 5, which runs through Pakistan, has the potential to provide the shortest link between the landlocked countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with the Arabian Sea.

Corridor 6 provides access to Europe, Middle East and Russia. Under KPEC, the Peshawar-Torkham expressway portion of Corridor 5 will be completed.

The Peshawar-Torkham expressway will also form an integral part of the planned Peshawar-Kabul-Dushanbe Motorway, APP added.

Azhar said the loan agreement indicated the World Bank’s resolve to support the development agenda of the incumbent government. World Bank Country Director Patchamuthu Illangovanwhile, at the signing, appreciated the reform initiatives of the PTI-led government, and committed to extend all possible facilitation and financial support to Islamabad in its efforts to promote economic activities in the country and to put the economy back on track.
Riaz Haq said…
Carec to enhance Pakistan’s exports to China: ADB

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/365294-carec-to-enhance-pakistan-s-exports-to-china-adb

Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees opportunities for Pakistan in Carec program to expand and diversify its exports to China and central Asian states, underscoring a need for increasing ownership of the projects for regional connectivity and economic cooperation.

ADB Director Regional Cooperation and Operation Coordination Safdar Pervez said there has to be greater awareness in Pakistan about the potential benefits of expanding relations and trade with other countries of Carec – a program launched two decades back by the Manila-based lender to encourage economic cooperation among 11 member countries.

“We feel there is a lot of recognition and ownership already there,” Pervez said, speaking at Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

“But, there is always some room to build on that.”

Pakistan joined Carec in 2010 and since then the program has invested about $1.5 billion on projects largely related to building trade and transport connectivity.

“We have a pipeline of next three years under which we plan to support Pakistan with another $1.7 billion,” Pervez added.

Other Carec members include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Pervez said Pakistan today has very high trade deficit and one way to get out of this large trade deficit is to find ways of expanding and diversifying exports.

Carec envisages corridor development connecting Pakistan, China and Central Asian states to European markets.

“We see that with the Carec block as a whole Pakistan’s exports have been declining,” Pervez said. “We estimate that over the last five years there has been about 37 percent decline in Pakistan’s exports to these countries, although the potential is large.”

In addition to infrastructure development, ADB is also trying to focus on soft components, which are to do with trade facilitation, such as improving rules and regulations for trade, trying to harmonise customs procedures and systems, promoting concept of single window so that the cost of traction of trade actually declines.

“These are the areas where we feel that Carec program is among the most relevant programs for Pakistan,” the ADB official said. “We are trying to explore opportunities to get Pakistan closer to other Carec member countries on issues such as economic corridor development, tourism, education and other areas.”

The ADB official said the focus on economic cooperation can be a very strong foundation to “build greater peace and greater security”.

He said Pakistan’s ranking on global cross-border trade indicators needs to be improved substantially.

“If you look at the World Bank’s doing business survey, again Pakistan’s performance can substantially be enhanced and improved.”

Pervez said the country needs to improve in the area of non-tariff barriers, such as phytosanitary standards.

“The non-tariff barriers are becoming much more important. They are bigger obstacles to Pakistani exports today,” he added. “Tariffs across the world are coming down. Pakistan still has relatively higher tariffs and there is room for improvement.”

The ADB official said the country can become a much more attractive destination for trade, exports and foreign direct investments if it is able to deal with infrastructure bottlenecks, simplify customs procedures, cut down red-tap and create more enabling environment for private sector. Carec has six corridors and two of the six corridors that go through Pakistan are actually also on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route.

“So there is already a strong alignment already in terms of corridor development,” ADB official said. “There is big need for regional initiatives such as CPEC and Carec to coordinate with each other so that synergies can be built…. any potential duplication can be avoided.”
Riaz Haq said…
Nine Central and Western Asian countries have signed an agreement in Tashkent that could pave the way for the creation of a regional energy market that could benefit billions of people from Europe to China.

https://www.rferl.org/a/will-massive-project-make-central-asia-the-core-of-regional-energy-market-/30227503.html

But success for the project would require tremendous financial investment and a great deal of trust and cooperation between countries not always known for having close ties.

Officials from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met at the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Energy Ministers’ Dialogue in late September to discuss how Central Asia’s energy export potential could be harnessed to bring electricity to markets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and others, as well as opening up trade arteries to Europe.

A concluding declaration from the Tashkent meeting "sets the region on a faster reform path toward more liberal energy markets with greater private sector participation and investment, increased power connections and exchanges between countries, and a strong commitment to tap renewable energy sources and clean technologies."

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) launched the CAREC program in 2001 to "establish multimodal transportation networks, increase energy trade and security, facilitate free movement of people and freight, and [lay] the groundwork for economic corridor development."

Reconnecting Old Links

The project is designed specifically to improve the infrastructure in Inner Asia (broadly defined as regions in Central, East, and North Asia including parts of Mongolia, western China, and eastern Russia), giving the region new connectivity to countries in Far Eastern Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, but also bringing the Inner Asian countries closer together energywise.

The Energy Ministers’ Dialogue is an example of how the countries of Inner Asia could help one another by providing energy supplies rather than importing those raw materials.

At the core of this planned regional energy market is Central Asia -- an area rich in oil, natural gas, uranium, and possessing great potential for hydropower.

But it is also very important for the five Central Asian states to reconnect to each other, as they once did.

The five shared a unified energy grid in the last decades of the Soviet Union when a series of 83 mainly coal-fired power plants sent electricity across Central Asia, with Tashkent as the distribution hub. That system was especially important for mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the keepers of water reservoirs that are vital to irrigation in Central Asia. Both countries have great but barely tapped hydropower potential, so receiving electricity from the three other Central Asian states was essential to homes and businesses in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The breakup of the Soviet Union in late 1991 resulted in independence for the five Central Asian countries. But the energy grid remained -- and so did the dependence on one another for energy supplies, though not for long.

Turkmenistan withdrew from the Unified Energy System of Central Asia -- as the grid had been renamed -- in 2003. When Tajikistan drew too much power from the system in the early winter of 2009, the grid crashed and left parts of Uzbekistan without power. Tajikistan’s unilateral move also led to overloads and emergency shutdowns in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan’s government quickly announced it was ending its participation in the unified grid. As the central dispatcher, Uzbekistan’s withdrawal meant the end of the grid.
Riaz Haq said…
New #Nepal map heightens land dispute with #India. It shows a sliver of land - including Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani - jutting out from the northwestern tip of Nepal. #NepalIndiaBorder #LimpiyadhuraBelongsToNepal #kalapaniBelongsToNepal @AJENews https://aje.io/26xvd

Nepal's communist Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has been under intense pressure from student groups and members of parliament to issue the new map since India inaugurated a controversial road this month.

On March 8, India opened an 80km (50-mile) road linking its northern state of Uttarakhand with Lipulekh on the border with Tibet across the controversial piece of land.

Nepal claims the territory under an 1816 treaty with the British East India Company, which sets the Kali river as its western boundary with India and says the land lying east of the river was its territory.

Nepalese officials said the exact size of the territory was being calculated.

A cabinet meeting on Monday decided to publish a new map that includes Lipulekh and zones in Kalapani and Limpiyadhura, Nepal's Law Minister Shiva Maya Tumbahangphe told AFP news agency.

The zones form a region of more than 300sq km (115sq miles) considered important because it is where the Nepalese and Indian borders touch China.

"Nepal will initiate dialogues with India simultaneously to resolve the boundary issue through diplomatic channels," she said.

'Unilateral act'
But India, which says the land is its territory, rejected Nepal's "unilateral act", saying it was not based on historical facts and evidence.

"It is contrary to the bilateral understanding to resolve the outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue," India's External Affairs Ministry spokesman Anurag Srivastava said in a statement.

"Such artificial enlargement of territorial claims will not be accepted by India," he said.

India has stationed a security post in the Kalapani area since its border war with China in 1962.

India and Nepal had both shown Kalapani and Lipulekh in their political maps, but Nepal had not previously shown Limpiyadhura.

"It was an issue of contention when Nepal first drew its map in the 1970s, but it was decided that [the] Limpiyadhura area would be drawn after a discussion with India," border expert Buddhi Narayan Shrestha said.

Nepali officials said the new map will be printed in school and college textbooks and official documents and will be used for all administrative purposes.
Riaz Haq said…
Retired #Indian General: "#Ladakh is the only area where physical military collusion can take place between #Pakistan and #China...just to the East of Siachen glacier and is our (#India's) vulnerability" #LadakhStandoff #Kashmir #CPEC https://theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/ via @ThePrintIndia

China is extremely suspicious of India. It believes that in the long term, India’s strategic aim is to restore the status quo ante 1950 by recovering Aksai Chin and other areas captured/secured by China. India’s alignment with the US, the presence of Tibetan government-in-exile in India, and the aggressive claims on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit Baltistan — through which the prestigious China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes — only strengthen China’s suspicion.

--------

In the absence of any government or military briefings, there are speculations galore about the details of the incidents on the LAC and the political/military aims of China. More so, after the two informal summits between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi — at Wuhan in 2018 and Mamallapuram in 2019 — wherein both leaders had committed to maintain peace and tranquility on the LAC and give strategic directions to their militaries on border management.

The starting point of any conflict between two nations is the political aim. Military actions are merely the means to achieve that aim. I will reverse the process and analyse the military situation and strategic importance of the areas of the India-China ‘face-offs’ to derive the political aims.

At the outset, let me be very categoric — just like in 1962, 1965, and 1999, we have once again been surprised both at the strategic and tactical levels. The manner in which we had to rush reinforcements from other sectors gives a clear indication that we were surprised. At the strategic level, it was the failure of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) to detect the build-up of the PLA formations from the rear bases to replace the border defence units. Our tactical surveillance with UAVs and patrols has been inadequate to detect this large-scale movement close to the LAC. The ITBP mans the border and ironically is not under the command of the army.

As per unconfirmed reports, the PLA has crossed the LAC and physically secured 3-4 km of our territory along Galwan River and the entire area between Finger 5 and Finger 8 along the north bank of Pangong Tso, a distance of nearly 8-10 km (the areas are marked in this Indian Express sketch in its 2017 report). There also seem to be minor incursions in the area of Hot Springs, in Ladakh’s Chang Chenmo River valley and at Demchok.

My assessment is that the PLA has deployed maximum one brigade each in Galwan River valley and along the north bank of Pangong Tso. Precautionary deployment would have been done at likely launch pads for offensive and other vulnerable areas along the LAC. Reserves would be on short notice to cater for Indian reaction/escalation. The airfield at Ngari has been upgraded and fighter aircraft have been positioned there. It is likely that additional troops have been deployed at Depsang plains, Hot Springs, Spanggur Gap, and Chumar.

It is pertinent to mention that the intrusion by regular troops is not linear like normal border patrols going to respective claim lines. If a brigade size force has secured 3-4 km in Galwan River, it implies that the heights to the north and south have been secured, thus securing a total area of 15 to 20 square km. Similarly, along Pangong Tso, the PLA brigade having secured 8-10 km on the north bank would have also secured the dominating heights to the north to physically control 35-40 square km. And if China subsequently realigns its claim line based on the areas secured, the net area secured would increase exponentially.
Riaz Haq said…
#Indian General H.S. Panag believes #India's aggressive assertion of claims on #GilgitBaltistan are making #China extremely suspicious of Indian threat against China-#Pakistan Economic Corridor (#CPEC) of great strategic importance to #Beijing. https://theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/

China is extremely suspicious of India. It believes that in the long term, India’s strategic aim is to restore the status quo ante 1950 by recovering Aksai Chin and other areas captured/secured by China. India’s alignment with the US, the presence of Tibetan government-in-exile in India, and the aggressive claims on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit Baltistan — through which the prestigious China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes — only strengthen China’s suspicion.

--------

In the absence of any government or military briefings, there are speculations galore about the details of the incidents on the LAC and the political/military aims of China. More so, after the two informal summits between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi — at Wuhan in 2018 and Mamallapuram in 2019 — wherein both leaders had committed to maintain peace and tranquility on the LAC and give strategic directions to their militaries on border management.

The starting point of any conflict between two nations is the political aim. Military actions are merely the means to achieve that aim. I will reverse the process and analyse the military situation and strategic importance of the areas of the India-China ‘face-offs’ to derive the political aims.

At the outset, let me be very categoric — just like in 1962, 1965, and 1999, we have once again been surprised both at the strategic and tactical levels. The manner in which we had to rush reinforcements from other sectors gives a clear indication that we were surprised. At the strategic level, it was the failure of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) to detect the build-up of the PLA formations from the rear bases to replace the border defence units. Our tactical surveillance with UAVs and patrols has been inadequate to detect this large-scale movement close to the LAC. The ITBP mans the border and ironically is not under the command of the army.

As per unconfirmed reports, the PLA has crossed the LAC and physically secured 3-4 km of our territory along Galwan River and the entire area between Finger 5 and Finger 8 along the north bank of Pangong Tso, a distance of nearly 8-10 km (the areas are marked in this Indian Express sketch in its 2017 report). There also seem to be minor incursions in the area of Hot Springs, in Ladakh’s Chang Chenmo River valley and at Demchok.

My assessment is that the PLA has deployed maximum one brigade each in Galwan River valley and along the north bank of Pangong Tso. Precautionary deployment would have been done at likely launch pads for offensive and other vulnerable areas along the LAC. Reserves would be on short notice to cater for Indian reaction/escalation. The airfield at Ngari has been upgraded and fighter aircraft have been positioned there. It is likely that additional troops have been deployed at Depsang plains, Hot Springs, Spanggur Gap, and Chumar.

It is pertinent to mention that the intrusion by regular troops is not linear like normal border patrols going to respective claim lines. If a brigade size force has secured 3-4 km in Galwan River, it implies that the heights to the north and south have been secured, thus securing a total area of 15 to 20 square km. Similarly, along Pangong Tso, the PLA brigade having secured 8-10 km on the north bank would have also secured the dominating heights to the north to physically control 35-40 square km. And if China subsequently realigns its claim line based on the areas secured, the net area secured would increase exponentially.
Riaz Haq said…
The spatial competition between containerised rail and sea transport in Eurasia

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0334-6

The competition in space between rail and sea transport is of great significance to the integration of Eurasia. This paper proposes a land and sea transport spatial balance model for container transport, which can extract a partition line on which transport costs by rail and sea are equal given a destination. Four scenarios are discussed to analyse the effects of different factors on the model. Then the model is empirically tested on current rail and sea transport networks to identify the transport competition pattern in Eurasia. The location of destinations, the freight costs, and time costs are the three main factors affecting the model. Among them, time costs are determined by the value of a container and its contents, the interest rate, and by time differences between land and sea transport. The case study shows that Eurasia forms a transport competition pattern with a land area to sea area ratio of about 1:2; this ratio, however, changes to 1:1 when time costs are considered. Further, the land and sea transport balance lines are consistent with the theories of geopolitics, which indicate that the same processes may exist in the spatial pattern of geo-economics and geopolitics in Eurasia. According to the balance lines, we get a spatial partition, dividing Eurasia into the land transport preferred area, the land–sea transport indifference area, and the sea transport preferred area. The paper brings a new perspective to the exploration of geopolitical economic spatial patterns of Eurasia and provides a practical geographic theory as an analytic basis for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

-----------

There are some limitations in the case study too. First, it is based on the precondition of using Beijing and Berlin as the destinations, and the current fluctuated values of speeds, goods and freight rates are all set unique. According to the simulation under different scenarios, preferential policies for transportation could be carried out by governments or transport companies in different places, which could further strengthen the practicality of our model. Specifically, some countries (such as India) oppose China’s BRI (Blah, 2018; Pattanaik, 2018). Therefore, we could add evaluations of the strategies for infrastructure construction, of such countries, in the future. Second, container transportation is a complex process. The extent to which the cross-border transportation between countries is frictionless will affect the land transport pattern. Moreover, these factors are difficult to quantify and have not been considered in this paper, such as unequal freight cost rates in different countries, different capabilities and widths of rails, time spent at ports, tariffs, insurance costs and so on, which may also influence actual costs. Third, in not considering the road network, this paper presents a basic possible pattern of land and sea transport balance based on the current railway and maritime networks, which may bias our results. At a strategic level, the results can offer positive suggestions to influence a better approach for transportation. It will, however, be necessary for individual decision-makers to make accurate calculations of the costs of different routes at a micro-level. Additionally, container shipping on the northern sea route is a potential transport corridor (Verny and Grigentin, 2009), it could be included in the future study. Moreover, because of the organisational system and mature development of transport companies, the related data of container transport are easy to obtain, which helps determining the costs and speeds more easily. In contrast, it is hardly to collect datasets of bulk transport. However, the effect of bulk transport may be significant because it is likely to form a large proportion of global maritime trade (J.P.Morgan Asset Management, 2019). This may render some ports more economically viable.

Riaz Haq said…
The spatial competition between containerised rail and sea transport in Eurasia

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0334-6

In the future, the BRI will be significant to the integration of economic trade in Eurasia, following the premise that land and sea transport should find a spatial balance. In fact, analysis of the competition and cooperation between land and sea transport can also be of theoretical significance for transport geography. This paper presents a LSTSB model based on the conceptualised Eurasia and simulates different land–sea transport scenarios. We then identify the transport balance lines by applying the model to Eurasia and present the partition of land and sea transport dominated areas in line with the theories of geopolitics.

The main insights are as follows:

Four scenarios based on different locations of destination, different freight costs, different values of a container’s goods and different speeds of transport are simulated using the theoretical model. They show that these basic factors influence the spatial balance lines of transportation. The results indicate that land transport is relatively competitive with sea transport but that this depends on different factors. Land transport may be undervalued at present due to long-term cooperation behaviour between governments or enterprises with maritime companies.

The case study shows that in terms of freight costs, maritime transport has an obvious advantage in Eurasia. The transport spatial balance line divides the Eurasian continent into a land and sea transport competitive pattern with an area ratio of 1:2. However, this ratio changes to 1:1 when we take time costs into consideration. Results show that the Economic Belt on road has economic feasibility and rationality.

Furthermore, the spatially competitive pattern of land–sea transport in Eurasia is highly consistent with geopolitical theories. This paper presents a partition of transport areas based on the calculation of balance lines, showing the land transport preferred area, the sea transport preferred area and the land–sea transport indifference area. The partition shows that the China–Russia–EU region, located in the land transport preferred area and the land–sea transport indifference area, is the key pivot area of integration influencing the current economic geographic imbalance in Eurasia. Further, it can serve as the analytic basis underpinning the necessity of increasing cooperation between China and the EU under the BRI, which is in the land–sea indifference area. Thus, the LSTSB model can bring a new perspective to the discussion of the spatial pattern of geopolitics and geo-economics in Eurasia.
Riaz Haq said…
#Trade-growth bid sees #Pakistan look nearer to home in #CentralAsia.“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to PM Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.” #exports https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-19/supply-chains-latest-trade-growth-bid-sees-pakistan-look-nearer-to-home via @business

Trucks carrying processed leather from Uzbekistan have arrived in Pakistan, a sign that the southern Asian economy’s efforts to expand land trade in its neighborhood are paying off.

The arrival of the cargo in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar via Afghanistan marks the first step in Islamabad’s goal to grow commerce with central Asian nations to about $1.5 billion per year from less than $1 billion in the past decade.

Pakistan’s focus on central Asia is a departure from its reliance hitherto on three key markets — North America, European Union and China. Expanding trade with resources-rich Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also fits Islamabad’s ambition of growing its industrial base.

“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.”

Pakistan is due to sign a transit and preferential trade agreement with Uzbekistan in July, he said, adding that an accord with Afghanistan would also be wrapped up by June.

Analysts see the new push in the context of Pakistan’s geo-strategic framework, which draws from the economic cooperation championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of his Belt and Road Initiative.

While China has channeled investments toward electricity generation in Pakistan as part of its BRI deals, it’s financing has also been focused on gas- and oil-based projects for exploration and distribution in central Asia.

“Economy is one part of the strategic outlook,” said Vaqar Ahmed, a joint executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. “Ultimately you would need economy, trade and investment cooperation to keep excitement in your strategic interests.”

Riaz Haq said…
NHA gears up to link CPEC M-14 with Pakistan-Afghanistan border

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/07/05/nha-gears-up-to-link-cpec-m-14-with-pak-afghan-border/


ISLAMABAD: The federal government has decided to connect Ghulam Khan in North Waziristan with Motorway 14 (M-14), a project of the western alignment route of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) via a 184km-long Motorway.

According to Gwadar Pro on Tuesday, the National Highway Authority (NHA) on Monday issued a request for proposal (RFP) of consultancy services for the Feasibility Study and Detailed Design for the Construction of the Motorway from Ghulam Khan to Esa Khel Interchange (184km approx).

The project will be financed by the Federal Government through PSDP 2022-23 through separate head/allocation.

In this regard, a pre-proposal conference on the project will be held on July 19, 2022, at NHA headquarters in Islamabad while procurement will be carried out by adopting the “Single Stage Two Envelops” procedure.

The proposals complete in all respects in accordance with the instructions provided in the RFP document in sealed envelopes, which should reach on or before August 10, 2022.

Esa Khel Interchange is located over M-14 in Mianwali district of Punjab, which is in proximity to the Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Between Mianwali and Ghulam Khan falls Bannu district of KP. After Torkham and Chaman, Ghulam Khan is the third most important crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has already started benefiting from Gwadar Port and the country received the first consignment of bulk cargo from the United Arab Emirates in July 2020. Ghulam Khan crossing, at the Pak-Afghan border point, is the shortest route connecting CPEC’s western route with Afghanistan, Central Asian States and beyond.

Riaz Haq said…
China, Pakistan Agree to Launch $10 Billion Railroad Project
Two countries plan to upgrade line from Karachi to Peshawar
Pakistan officials have said they expect funding from China
By Faseeh Mangi


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/china-pakistan-agree-to-launch-10-billion-railroad-project

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif agreed in a meeting in Beijing to launch a high-speed rail project that could cost $9.85 billion, a move that comes as the world’s No. 2 economy moves to slow some of its lending due to growth concerns.

The two nations agreed to get started on the Main Line-1, according to a statement from Sharif’s office, which described it as “a project of strategic importance.”

That project involves upgrading a 1,163-mile, colonial-era track from Karachi to Peshawar to carry high-speed trains. Earlier this week, Pakistan formally approved the project, which has been in discussion for years, without saying where the funding would come from or providing technical details.

Officials in Pakistan have previously said they expected to get loans from China for the upgrade.

The US has in the past criticized China for using what it calls “debt diplomacy” to make developing nations more dependent on Beijing. Still, earlier this year China delayed a bailout for Pakistan as its debt soared, and it has been scaling back lending in Africa as its economy slows.

About 30% of Pakistan’s foreign debt is owed to China, including state-owned commercial banks, the International Monetary Fund said in a report in September.

In June, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on Pakistan to negative from stable, citing financial concerns.

See: Xi Kicks Off Third Term With Flurry of Diplomatic Activity

In their talks, Xi and Sharif agreed to finalize details on an inner-city rail line in Karachi. The Chinese leader also said his nation would provide 500 million yuan ($68.7 million) to Pakistan to help it rebuild after flooding over the summer that displaced more than half a million people.

Also Wednesday, the two countries’ central banks signed a memorandum of cooperation on a yuan clearing in Pakistan, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement. It didn’t give more details.

Sharif is wrapping up a two-day visit to Beijing. China is hosting a flurry of foreign leaders this week, as Xi kicks off a norm-busting third term during which he’s vowed to increase his nation’s global influence.

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong became the first foreign leader to meet Xi since the Chinese president removed rivals and installed loyalists at a leadership reshuffle last month.

Xi and his top officials are then expected to hold talks in the capital with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Later this month, he will likely travel to Indonesia and Thailand for major summits attended by global leaders including President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Riaz Haq said…
CPEC an exemplar of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation


https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202212/02/WS6389ad32a31057c47eba25f4.html


Pang Chunxue, deputy head of mission, Chinese Embassy, has said that China is planning to further deepen synergy between its development strategies and those of Pakistan.

The Islamabad Institute of Conflict Resolution (IICR) organized a policy conclave here in Islamabad, titled "CPEC's Defining Moment: Prospect and Challenges".

China and Pakistan will make full use of the Joint Cooperation Committee of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), advance the CPEC with greater efficiency, and make the CPEC an exemplar of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, Pang said while addressing the session.

While highlighting the benefits of the CPEC she said that as the landmark project of the BRI, CPEC has achieved fruitful results, bringing in $25.4 billion in investment, helping to add 6040 MW of electricity, 886 km of core national transmission network and 510 km of highways.

Under promotion of the CPEC, Pakistan's energy shortage has been greatly addressed, transport infrastructure has been improved, and local people have gained a large number of employment opportunities.

Lastly, she said that China will always put Pakistan as its priority for cooperation and work in joint hands to address various risks and challenges at the regional and international levels, deepen the China-Pakistan all-weather strategic cooperative partnership, and build a closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era.
Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf

Country with a high share of biomass: Pakistan
Pakistan has a high share of biomass in its energy consumption, which is expected to gradually reduce
as the share of natural gas increases. While Pakistan has a well-diversified energy supply overall,
with availability of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower, it is expected to promote the use of
renewables considering future cost efficiencies and high technical potential.

-------------

Only two CAREC member countries currently operate nuclear power plants—Pakistan (1 GW of installed
capacity) and the PRC (48 GW). Both countries view nuclear power as a key part of their national energy
systems that provides a stable baseload of electricity. Two other members, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
have initiated large-scale nuclear power plant projects, with commissioning planned prior to 2030. Both
countries are major producers of uranium, a key fuel for nuclear power plants, with Kazakhstan being the
largest producer of uranium globally. While nuclear power can offer significant advantages in terms of
scale and reliable power generation, a comprehensive system of security safeguards should be in place
to prevent malfunction and guarantee safe management of nuclear waste while respecting international
non-proliferation agreements.

----------

Several countries are also working on liberalizing their energy markets by shifting from vertically integrated
state-owned companies to unbundled energy markets. Such market structures reduce uncertainties for
private investors. For example, Tajikistan has unbundled Barqi Tojik, a vertically integrated electric utility,
into three independent companies, with each in charge of a different function: electricity generation,
transmission, and distribution. Georgia introduced power generation rules that were approved in 2020
in line with the principles of market liberalization, establishing a competitive electricity market. Pakistan
approved a comprehensive framework and implementation plan in 2020 aimed at building a competitive
wholesale power market by 2022.

------------------

The CAREC region’s cross-border ties and possibilities for trade provide another opportunity for investors.
For instance, the Central Asian Power System (CAPS) interconnects Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, with Tajikistan expected to be reconnected in 2022) at different voltage
levels. Some other large interconnection projects include the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline,
supplying natural gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Türkiye and Europe; the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–
Pakistan Power Interconnection; and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline. While
predictions as to whether and when the last two projects can be commissioned are difficult because of
the political situation in Afghanistan, these projects highlight the solid potential of regional trade in the
CAREC region

------------

Almost 200 nations agreed to phase down coal usage at the 26th United Nations Climate Change
Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in 2021 to tackle climate change. Forty-six nations stepped
up their pledges to phase out coal-fired power plants and only build new plants under the condition they
are equipped with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology (Rives 2021). The Glasgow
Climate Pact calls on countries to revisit their emission reduction targets by the end of 2022 to try to
keep the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target achievable. More than 100 countries signed the Global Methane
Pledge announced by the US, EU, and other partners at the COP26, agreeing to reduce their overall
emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels (Maizland 2021). Seven CAREC countries (Georgia,
Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, the PRC, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) have submitted stronger NDCs
Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf


Energy Sector Profile
Country Profile
Pakistan is the world’s fifth most populous country, with a population of more than 225 million people
and a $264 billion nominal gross domestic product (GDP), as of 2020. Pakistan’s population and economy
have grown at a steady pace, with the GDP growing annually by 4%–6%, and the population by 2%, since
2015. While the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has slowed down economic growth to
0.5% in 2020, Pakistan is expected to recover, with a projected economic annual growth rate of nearly 6%
until 2025.
Pakistan’s energy sector is highly dependent on fossil fuel imports. Due to insufficient exploration and
development activities, the country is a major importer of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal. Moreover, issues
with ever-increasing demand and an inability to meet needs with existing power generation capacities
have forced consumers to use biomass as means of cooking and heating, especially in the agriculture
sector, which makes up most of the GDP. On the other hand, being one of the largest countries in the
region, Pakistan has vast renewable resources, such as hydropower, solar photovoltaic (PV), and wind, as
well as experience in power generation from nuclear power. However, the share of electricity production
from renewables has been decreasing since 2015, with fossil-fuel based generation on an upward trend in
development (Figure 67). This has led to increases in carbon intensity, putting Pakistan in 95th position
out of 172 countries in 2018. Energy efficiency measures in Pakistan require further development and
implementation. The country was ranked the 87th most energy-intensive economy in the world in 2018.

--------

Energy Sector and Technologies Assessment
Conventional Fuel Production
Pakistan’s domestic energy production consists of oil, natural gas, and coal. The country also has significant
undeveloped oil and gas potential. However, insufficient investment in exploration and development
activities due to pricing policies has limited Pakistan’s ability to achieve security of supply through domestic
energy production.
Domestic oil production in the country amounted to around 4 million tons in 2019, while total import
volume was more than 10 million tons. The main production sites are located in Punjab and Sindh
provinces. The country is also planning to expand its refinery capacities to meet growing demand,
with a target capacity of 48 million tons per year by 2030. In 2019, total natural gas production stood at
33 billion cubic meters (bcm), slightly lower than domestic demand. The Sui Gas field is the largest natural

gas field in Pakistan, accounting for 10% of total domestic production (Pakistan Petroleum Limited).
However, major oil and natural gas fields in the country are in the later stages of their lifecycle, with
gradually declining production volumes.
Coal in Pakistan is mainly produced in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces. While production was
only 3.3 million tons in 2015, the country expanded its production to nearly 6.8 million tons in 2019.
However, the country still imported approximately 15 million tons of coal to satisfy demand. Overall, coal
resources in Pakistan are estimated at more than 3 billion tons.
Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf


Electricity Generation
Pakistan’s electricity sector has a total installed capacity of 34.5 GW, with thermal generation dominating
the power mix, having a share of 66% (National Transmission and Despatch Company 2020). Gas-fired
plants are the main source of power, having an installed capacity of almost 9.3 GW, while oil-fired power
plants have 6.5 GW installed capacity and coal-fired plants have 4.6 GW. Since the regulatory framework
allowed independent power producers to develop generation projects, multiple new thermal power
plants were constructed. As the country’s oil and natural gas reserves are diminishing, further growth in
alternative energy sources is needed.
Historically, hydropower was one of the main sources of electricity generation in Pakistan. The total
hydropower resource potential is estimated at 60 GW (Faizi 2020). However, with the expansion of
thermal power, its share in electricity has declined significantly and currently holds a 29% share of total
installed capacity. The country has 30 hydropower plants in operation, with a total installed capacity
of 9.9 GW, including 17 categorized as major hydropower and 13 as small hydropower units operating
mainly as a run-of-river units. The three main projects are Tarbela Dam (4.8 GW installed capacity),
Ghazi–Barotha (1.4 GW), and Mangla Dam (1.1 GW). Tarbela and Mangla dams, commissioned in the
1970s, are considered the main contributors to hydropower generation. To enhance the quality and
reliability of supply, Mangla Dam is planned for refurbishment, and Tarbela Dam for extension.
Pakistan’s first nuclear power plant, Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP), began operations in 1970,
with a capacity of 100 megawatts (MW). Since then, nuclear power generation has experienced active
growth, and current capacity is 2.5 GW. Cross-country cooperation is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s strategy
to reach its goal of 8,800 MW of nuclear installed capacity by 2030. Currently, one new reactor of
1,100 MW is being built.
The country’s renewable energy potential has been realized to only a limited extent. The theoretical
potential of total wind energy is estimated at 340 GW, with the southern wind corridors being the most
auspicious—the Gharo–Keti Bandar wind corridor has over 50 GW of potential alone. However, only
around 1.1 GW of wind energy capacity is currently in operation. Likewise, solar power has tremendous
potential—as high as 2,900 GW, only about 0.4 GW of which is installed as of 2021. Although projects such
as the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (0.4 GW capacity) were successfully implemented, the lack of political
commitment, land availability, and the lower performance of outdated PV plants installed earlier are among
the reasons for limited development of renewable energy. Additional potential solutions include offshore
wind, floating solar PV in existing hydropower reservoirs, and wind farms near hydropower plants with
integration into existing grid infrastructure.
Country Outlooks 2030—Pakistan 1

Power generation during fiscal year 2020 reached 121,691 GWh: 32% by hydroelectric plants, 57% by
thermal plants, 8% by nuclear plants, and 3% by renewable energy power plants.

Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf



Transmission and Distribution
Pakistan’s power T&D system is suffering from significant energy losses and disruptions. In 2020, 19.8%
of energy was lost during its transmission, distribution, and delivery to end consumers. Among the
10 distribution companies, losses vary greatly from 9% to 39% (NEPRA 2020). On average, the country
experienced 81 interruptions (system average interruption frequency index) lasting nearly 5,300 minutes
(system average interruption duration index) in 2020. The poor performance can be attributed to a
variety of factors, including poor technical conditions, insufficient collection rate of accounts receivable,
and issues with circular debt present in the country.
Pakistan had 7,470 kilometers (km) of 500 kilovolts (kV) and 11,281 km of 220 kV T&D lines in 2020.
Distribution companies are responsible for T&D activities below 132 kV. Importantly, only 74% of Pakistan’s
population is connected to the power grid. With high electricity losses and frequent outages, Pakistan is
planning to introduce advanced grid management infrastructure and metering. Advanced conductors and
other smart grid upgrades could help reduce T&D losses.
There are two operators in Pakistan’s natural gas T&D system: Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited
(SNGPL), covering the central and northern regions of the country; and Sui Southern Gas Company
Limited (SSGCL), covering the southern regions. Total grid losses accounted for nearly 17% by SSGCL and
11% by SNGPL in 2020. According to estimates, average leakage rate is 4.9 leaks per km for SSGCL, and
2.2 leaks per km for SNGPL (for comparison, this value equals 0.2 in Germany and 0.4 in Massachusetts, on
average). The gas pipeline systems require a major overhaul and modernization to increase the efficiency
of transportation and to reduce leakages.

Cross-Border Infrastructure
In terms of cross-border power interconnections, Pakistan has one operational line as of 2021:
Mand–Jakigur, connecting Pakistan and Iran, with a capacity of 104 MW. In addition, Pakistan,
Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, have launched the Central Asia–South Asia (CASA-1000)
project, a mega power interconnection project of 1,300 MW. Pakistan’s part of CASA-1000 is currently
under construction, and is expected to transport electricity from Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. The
uncertain political situation in Afghanistan, through which CASA-1000 will transit to reach Pakistan, has
rendered difficult any predictions as to when and if the project can be successfully commissioned.
Natural gas is imported via sea terminals, mainly through two terminals located in the Qasim and Karachi
ports, with a cumulative capacity of 12 bcm annually. As of 2021, there are no operating cross-border
natural gas pipelines in Pakistan. However, in response to growing demand, the government has been
planning the construction of natural gas pipelines to increase import capacity, with the Iran–Pakistan
pipeline expected to be commissioned by 2025. The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI)
pipeline has been discussed since more than a decade, but its realization remains uncertain given the
situation in Afghanistan and other political tensions between the participating countries. Further efforts to
bridge the supply and demand gap are planned with the construction of two additional terminals, bringing
total import capacity to nearly 18 bcm per annum.
Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf


Oil is also currently imported via sea terminals. Oil terminals (the Karachi port, the Qasim port, and the
Balochistan refinery single-point mooring terminal) are located near Karachi and have a total import
capacity of 51 million tons per year (Table 6).
Energy Consumption
Pakistan’s industry is dominated mostly by small and medium-sized enterprises in sectors such as
leather, textiles, and food processing. Most entities use fossil fuels as feedstock and run on outdated and
inefficient equipment. Cement and brick industries in Pakistan have historically been the two main energy
consumer groups. The combined potential of energy efficiency measures for these industries represents
about 40% of the total industry energy savings potential. Key levers include switching to multistage dry
kilns for cement or the introduction of modern designs, such as zig-zagging for brick kilns. The National
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (NEECA) has been a main driver of progress, having
recently implemented a mandatory energy efficiency policy for electric motors, showing the government’s
commitment to increasing energy savings. The NEECA also plays a prominent role in promoting energy

audits in various industrial sectors. As a result of these efforts, Pakistan’s energy intensity declined
from 5.1 megajoules (MJ) per dollar of GDP in 2007 to 4.4 MJ per dollar of GDP in 2015. Despite these
developments, the institutional framework for energy efficiency requires significant further development
to achieve higher levels of efficiency across the board.
Energy efficiency measures in Pakistan often require region-specific optimization, especially in building
structures (for example, buildings in southern parts require more cooling than heating). One of the key
challenges is the inadequate energy performance standards of the Building Energy Code of Pakistan. The
Code focuses mainly on efficiency in commercial buildings, which was last updated in 2011, and failed to
introduce modern efficiency standards. For instance, the measures that might have the largest impact
in terms of energy savings include building envelope insulation and efficient lighting. Some efforts to
improve consumption efficiency can, however, already be observed—for example, the distribution of free
compact fluorescent lamps to replace inefficient incandescent bulbs and promote more energy-efficient
solutions for artificial lighting.
While the transport sector plays a leading role in the country’s economic activity, it is also the biggest
contributor to air pollution, with the transport sector making up more than 40% of total emissions.
Importantly, Pakistan has been experiencing a rapid growth in the number of vehicles in use, as the
share of households owning a car increased from 6% to 9% in 2021. Recognizing challenges related to
imports of oil products, the government actively promotes the use of electric vehicles (EVs). For instance,
the recently approved National Electric Vehicle Policy introduced tax incentives for imports and
production, and also set ambitious EV targets for 2030 (30% of newly sold cars and trucks, and 50%
of buses and two- and three-wheelers, to be EVs). In terms of railway transport, Pakistan relies solely
on diesel locomotives as of 2021—the country used to have 16 electric locomotives in the early 2000s,
but the government closed the lines and stopped using them after frequent copper theft incidents at
different points along the tracks. Still, Pakistan has continued efforts to improve efficiency by replacing old
locomotives, leading to substantial energy savings of 3.5 million liters of diesel in 2019.

Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf

Regulatory Framework
Upon obtaining independence in 1947, Pakistan introduced several authorities to regulate the energy
market (Government of Pakistan 1958). The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), which
served as a key player in the power sector, was unbundled in the 1990s to ensure the establishment
of a liberalized energy market and fair competition. As a consequence, both private operators and
state-owned enterprises became eligible to participate in the generation sector via a single-buyer
scheme. The Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act has introduced a newly
established independent authority: the National Electricity and Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA),
which regulates power sector companies and sets tariffs and operational standards. One of the key laws
on energy efficiency, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act, established a National Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Authority, with a mandate to set the strategic direction and national standards
for energy efficiency measures (The Gazette of Pakistan 2016).
Two authorities, the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and the Alternative Energy
Development Board (AEDB), were established as the main institutions, providing support to private
energy project developers as well as investors (Government of Pakistan, AEDB 2006; The Gazette o

Pakistan 2012). Each board has been established for specific projects: the PPIB was created and tasked to
approve conventional generation projects, while the AEDB was responsible for the approval of renewable
energy projects.
Fossil fuel production in Pakistan is regulated by a set of rules for oil, natural gas, and coal, which govern
the process of obtaining permission for the exploration and production of fossil fuels. The Oil and Gas
Regulatory Authority (OGRA) is a primary regulator of the market and licensing authority. The Authority
issues licenses for coal, oil, and natural gas through a competitive bidding process. Coal and petroleum
development and production licenses are given for 25 years, with the possibility of renewal for 5 years.
With increasing market transparency and private sector participation in energy projects leading to
growing investments, the country has introduced a general concept for a competitive electricity market.
These new rules, already published by NEPRA and coming into force in 2022, are regulating the transfer
from a single-buyer model to a competitive model in the wholesale segment (Khan 2020).
The natural gas market, in contrast, is still operating under the single-buyer scheme, and a competitive
market for natural gas supply is yet to be introduced, as state-owned utilities act as single monopolies.

Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf


Policy Framework
Several governmental decrees have set the policy framework for the energy sector. The main government
priorities in power generation were outlined in the Power Generation Policy and Transmission Line Policy
in 2015 (Government of Pakistan, PPIB 2015). The priorities for renewable energy were set in 2019 in
the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy (Government of Pakistan 2019). The government has also
published a National Energy Conservation Policy to promote the use of domestically available resources.
The following priorities were outlined in the abovementioned policy documents:
(i) Development of renewable energy. With the established target for renewable energy
generation in the electricity mix (up to 30% of nonhydropower renewables and 30% of
hydropower by 2030), Pakistan aims to attract more investment into its renewables sector
(Qasim 2020). The government has already started facilitating investments in sustainable
energy sources, mainly by encouraging lower tariffs via introducing competitive bidding and
offering tax benefits as well as incentives for local production of renewable energy equipment,
such as solar panels and wind turbines.
(ii) Improvement in energy efficiency. Pakistan aims to increase the energy sector’s profitability
and sustainability by reducing energy losses as well as increasing energy efficiency. Specifically,
to realize the country’s considerable energy-saving potential of, on average, 25% in key sectors
(industry, residential, transport, and agriculture), the NEECA will be implementing a number of
policies: developing necessary regulations, introducing the national scheme for certified energy
auditors, establishing national Energy Efficiency awards, etc.
(iii) Introduction of a competitive energy market. As stated in the country’s Power Generation
Policy, Pakistan aims to provide sufficient power generation capacity and high-quality energy
services at the least cost. The country plans to achieve that by enhancing fair competition and
market liberalization. In 2020, NEPRA approved a detailed framework and implementation plan

for a competitive trading bilateral contract market, the main goal of which is to establish the
competitive wholesale electricity market with multiple sellers and buyers by 2022.
(iv) Promotion of domestic exploration and production of oil and natural gas resources. Through
optimized pricing and licensing mechanisms, Pakistan wants to further develop its domestic
production of fossil fuels to become more self-reliant and reduce its dependence on imports
(the share of imports constituted around 40% of the total primary supply in 2018).

Forecast Methodology
One of the objectives of this country study is to present a detailed overview and analysis of future energy
market trends in Pakistan. For this purpose, three scenarios were developed, considering the country’s
regulatory framework, technological development, and consumer preferences, among other factors
(Box 17). Supply and demand, technology, carbon emissions, and investment outlooks were derived
based on these scenarios.
Riaz Haq said…
CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf

Supply and Demand Outlook
Rapid economic development and population growth in Pakistan are the main drivers for growth in
primary demand, which is projected to increase from 111 million toe in 2018 to 125–154 million toe in
2030, depending on the scenario. Demand has fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with nearly
a 4% decrease from 2019 to 2020, although rapid recovery and growth in demand is expected. In the
Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, primary energy demand grows significantly at an annual rate of
3.1%, as this scenario assumes low to moderate efficiency gains and limited reductions of T&D losses.
As for the Government Commitments scenario, annual growth is lower, at 1.4%, due to higher efficiency
gains and lower grid losses. The Green Growth scenario shows the lowest compound annual growth rate
among the three scenarios, with only 1.2% growth until 2030, assuming the greatest reduction of energy
intensity (Figure 68).
In terms of energy sources, natural gas remains the most important energy resource in all three scenarios,
driven by the country’s large fleet of gas vehicles, and by direct consumption in the residential and
industrial sectors.
Box 17: Scenarios for Pakistan’s Energy Sector
Business-as-usual scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, with current energy system and policies;
Government Commitments scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering individual priorities of
the Government of Pakistan; and
Green Growth scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering enhanced energy transition and
environmental policies.

Electricity generation in Pakistan is mainly dominated by fossil fuel sources, specifically natural gas and oil.
Alternative energy sources in Pakistan consist mainly of hydropower and nuclear, while the share of wind
and solar PV is much lower. The Government Commitments scenario assumes a large share of renewables
in the mix, followed by a decrease in fossil fuel-generated power. The BAU scenario assumes a slower
expansion of renewable resource generation, leading to prolonged reliance on fossil fuels in 2030. In both
Government Commitments and Green Growth scenarios, many natural gas- and oil-fired power plants
are decommissioned, and their capacities are replaced by renewable energy.
Nonetheless, a shift toward renewables is evident in all scenarios via the expansion of hydropower
capacities and the further expansion of wind- and solar-powered plants. The Green Growth scenario
assumes the most ambitious development of nonhydropower renewables, leading to a 20% share of
wind and a 10% share of solar PV in 2030. Under the Government Commitments scenario, the share of
wind reaches 16% and solar PV is 9%, compared to much slower developments under the BAU scenario,
where wind energy reaches 7% and solar PV only 2%. Furthermore, reflecting a broad push toward the
development of hydropower, the expansion of hydropower capacity is assumed in all scenarios, with the
highest being in the Green Growth scenario (43% of the total generation mix) (Figure 69).
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan, Uzbekistan sign MoUs to increase bilateral trade to $1bn


https://www.dawn.com/news/1728370/pakistan-uzbekistan-sign-mous-to-increase-bilateral-trade-to-1bn


Pakistan and Uzbekistan on Monday finalised agreements to expand investment and increase bilateral trade to $1 billion.

To this end, Commerce Minister Naveed Qamar and Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Khodjave Jamshid Abdukhakimovich signed nine Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs).

Talking to the media on the occasion, Qamar said the two countries had decided to implement the Preferential Trade Agreement from February 1, 2023.

In a press release issued afterwards, the commerce ministry said the two countries also discussed the implementation of the Agreement between Uzbekistan and Pakistan on Transit Trade (AUPTT) and Uzbekistan would notify rules in this regard in February.

They also decided to undertake a joint visit to the Afghan capital in the last week of January to discuss problems faced by Pakistani and Uzbek transporters.

“Both sides agreed to formulate a joint strategy for transit trade through Afghanistan. Regional understanding on Transit and Trade Framework to be prepared including joint fund/mechanism for the upkeep of road infrastructure in Afghanistan.”

Uzbekistan requested an off-dock terminal at Karachi and Gwadar ports and was assured full facilitation, the statement added.

Besides this, the countries also decided to hold trade exhibitions and prepare a strategy to cooperate in e-commerce.

The Uzbek delegation is scheduled to meet a number of officials during its visit, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev had visited Pakistan earlier this year. During his visit, a number of agreements and MoUs were signed by the two sides. An MoU was signed between Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Tourism and Sport and Pakistan’s Ministry of Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony to promote religious tourism. Another MoU was inked between the two states in the field of environment and climate change.

Pakistan and Uzbekistan have been closely collaborating at regional and international fora especially at the United Nations, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Economic Coop­eration Organisation, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Riaz Haq said…
CPEC Results According to Wang Wenbin of China

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1677391745112477696?s=20

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
CPEC projects are creating 192,000 jobs, generating 6,000MW of power, building 510 km (316 miles) of highways, and expanding the national transmission network by 886 km (550 miles),” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters in Beijing."


Associated Press of Pakistan: On July 5, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif while addressing a ceremony to mark a decade of signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), said that CPEC has been playing a key role in transforming Pakistan’s economic landscape. He also said that the mega project helped Pakistan progress in the region and beyond. What is your response?

Wang Wenbin: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a signature project of China-Pakistan cooperation in the new era, and an important project under the Belt and Road Initiative. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the launch of CPEC. After ten years of development, a “1+4” cooperation layout has been formed, with the CPEC at the center and Gwadar Port, transport infrastructure, energy and industrial cooperation being the four key areas. Projects under CPEC are flourishing all across Pakistan, attracting USD 25.4 billion of direct investment, creating 192,000 jobs, producing 6,000 megawatts of electric power, building 510 kilometers of highways and adding 886 kilometers to the core national transmission network. CPEC has made tangible contribution to the national development of Pakistan and connectivity in the region. China and Pakistan have also explored new areas for cooperation under the framework of CPEC, creating new highlights in cooperation on agriculture, science and technology, telecommunication and people’s wellbeing.

China stands ready to work with Pakistan to build on the past achievements and follow the guidance of the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries on promoting high-quality development of CPEC to boost the development of China and Pakistan and the region and bring more benefits to the people of all countries.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202307/t20230706_11109401.html

Popular posts from this blog

Pakistani Women's Growing Particpation in Workforce

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Plane

Pakistan's Saadia Zahidi Leads World Economic Forum's Gender Parity Effort