Review of Musharraf's Era on 12th Anniversary of 1999 Coup

Musharraf's policies helped create 13 million new jobs, cut poverty in half and halved the country's total debt burden in the period from 2000 to 2007.

Musharraf Government's Accomplishments:

Thanks to the dynamic economy under President Musharraf's rule, Pakistan created more jobs, graduated more people from schools and colleges, built a larger middle class and lifted more people out of poverty as percentage of its population than India in the last decade. And Pakistan has done so in spite of the huge challenges posed by the war in Afghanistan and a very violent insurgency at home.

The above summary is based on volumes of recently released reports and data on job creation, education, middle class size, public hygiene, poverty and hunger over the last decade that offer new surprising insights into the lives of ordinary people in two South Asian countries. It adds to my previous post on this blog titled "India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2010".



The current PPP government summed up General Musharraf's accomplishments well when it signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the International Monetary Fund which said:

"Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1)



Pre-Musharraf Decade:

Before the coup, Pakistan was approaching the end of what is now remembered as The Lost Decade of the 1990s when PPP's Benazir Bhutto and PML's Nawaz Sharif played musical chairs, while the economy stagnated and the people suffered.

Summing up the economic situation after the PPP-PML coalition took office in 2008, the Economist magazine in its June 12 issue summed it up as follows: "Before Mr Sharif was ousted in 1999, the two parties had presided over a decade of corruption and mismanagement. But since then, as the IMF remarked in a report in January, there has been a transformation. Pakistan attracted over $5 billion in foreign direct investment in the 2006-07 fiscal year, ten times the figure of 2000-01. The government's debt fell from 68% of GDP in 2003-04 to less than 55% in 2006-07, and its foreign-exchange reserves reached $16.4 billion as recently as in October." Please read "Pakistani Economy Returning to the Bad Old Days".




Criticisms of Musharraf Government:

Among the various criticisms of Musharraf's rule, there are two that particularly stand out:

1. Musharraf's Support For US War on Terror:

Musharraf has been heavily criticized for siding with the United States and angering the Taliban and their sympathizers who have been attacking and terrorizing Pakistani state and its people. As mightily as Pakistan has suffered at the hands of the Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists and their affiliates since 911, I do believe that Pakistanis would have been much worse off if Musharraf had not sided with the United States when asked after the worst terror attacks on US mainland. The consequences of refusal to help the US would have ranged from direct and massive NATO attack (probably with Indian help) on Pakistan to crippling sanctions and complete political and diplomatic isolation on the world stage.

2. Musharraf's Failure to Increase Energy Supply:

There was double digit annual growth in industrial production in Pakistan from 2000-2007, and the rising incomes and standards of living put pressure on energy supplies, particularly electricity. However, the situation was being managed to assure only short interruptions in supply to maintain and ration insufficient power generation capacity. For example, in June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, the situation is far worse with 10-12 hrs or more of load shedding every day, in spite of an stagnant economy.

It is becoming increasingly clear that it is the total absence of financial management, not just insufficient installed generating capacity, that is the crux of the worsening energy problems in Pakistan.

Riots have broken out as the Punjab, Pakistan's largest province, finds itself in the midst of the worst ever electricity crisis in the nation's history. The power shortfall has reached almost 9000 megawatts across the country, over half of the total demand of about 17000 MW.

Many public and private power producers have shut down their power plants due to the suspension of fuel supply by Pakistan State Oil, the state-owned oil company, according to a report in the Express Tribune. The oil company is demanding payment of Rs. 155 billion in outstanding dues from the power producers before resuming fuel supply.

Summary:

Musharraf era was the best era in terms of improving the lives of the ordinary folks in Pakistan since the Ayub-era in the 1960s. Strong economy helped create millions of new jobs and lifted millions out of poverty. Social indicators improved significantly and the the size of the middle class grew dramatically. So why is it that there are so many people who continue to condemn Musharraf?

I think Musharraf's critics can be divided in two categories:

1. Self-serving politicians and their supporters under their patronage who deny Musharraf's accomplishments because any admission of reality would be seen as a confession of their own incompetence.

2. Those who acknowledge Musharraf's economic legacy but would still prefer elected civilian government for ideological reasons. They are perfectly willing to sacrifice economic growth in the hope of hastening a better democratic future for Pakistan.



I, too, want to see a democratic Pakistan, but I strongly disagree with both the above categories. In my view, the best way to usher in genuine and successful democratic rule in any developing nation is to first unleash East and South East Asian style rapid economic growth which was brought about by dictators like General Park Chung-hee of South Korea, Mahathir Mohammad of Malaysia and General Suharto of Indonesia. Each of these autocrats served long enough to bring their nations in to the modern industrial era and created a large urban middle class which is now sustaining democratic rule. Until such time as Pakistan has a well educated and politically empowered urban middle class making up more than half of its population, the electoral process will continue to result in patronage-based feudal democracy of the kind that exists today.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Musharraf's Legacy

Pakistan's Economic Performance 2008-2010

Role of Politics in Pakistan Economy

India and Pakistan Compared in 2011

Musharraf's Coup Revived Pakistan's Economy

What If Musharraf Had Said No?

Political Patronage Trumps Politics in Pakistan

ASEAN Architect Suharto Passes On

Comments

Riaz Haq said…
Here's an excerpt from a WSJ Op Ed on Indonesia as an example for Pakistan:

But Washington found a successful approach toward Indonesia, one that can be mirrored for Pakistan. Working with the friendly regime of Suharto, who seized power in 1966, the U.S. helped engineer a remarkable transformation. Jakarta quashed communism and turned its energies toward economic development. The men in charge, a team of U.S.-trained economists, came to be known in development lore as the Berkeley mafia.

Over the next three decades, it flowered into one of Asia's star performers. In 2005 dollars, per capita income rocketed from $325 in 1970 to the middle-income benchmark of $1,000 in 1993. Even today, despite the setback of the 1998 Asian financial crisis and a rocky transition to democracy, Indonesia leads India and Pakistan in both income and human well-being.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203554104576654771450872608.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Riaz Haq said…
In a recent book titled "The Pakistan Cauldron" by James Farwell, the author argues that when Mr. Khan’s proliferation network was exposed in the early 2000s, Mr. Musharraf orchestrated a brilliant strategic communications campaign designed to absolve Islamabad of complicity. On public television, the president extracted a forced confession from Mr. Khan, who unconvincingly pleaded he had acted alone.

President Musharraf then pardoned the scientist (Mr. Khan remains a hero in Pakistan) before putting the serial proliferator into “forced retirement” to shield him from international investigators. “[W]ith his phone line severed, newspaper deliveries halted, and access to television denied. … No one was prosecuted. No intelligence was shared.” Perhaps most troubling, the Bush administration applauded Mr. Musharraf’s handling of the situation and Mr. Khan has yet to face a single question from U.S. or international investigators.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/8/inside-pakistans-murky-politics/
Riaz Haq said…
Here's a report in The News on the PPP's unwillingness to face rising poverty in Pakistan:

The World Bank has said that poverty assessment is underway in Pakistan, which will provide the basis for an update on poverty trends, sources said on Saturday.

But the government is making efforts to drag its feet away from revealing any poverty figures in a bid to avoid controversy, they said. In its latest report on Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the World Bank took conscious decision to sticking the poverty figures of 17.2 percent on the basis of survey done in 2007/08.

The figure of 17.2 percent was not endorsed by the PPP-led government, despite validation extended by the World Bank, they said. There is a sharp divide among the economists over this issue as some are favouring to concede poverty figures validated by the World Bank, but some close to the incumbent regime are raising doubts about the credibility of the data compiled by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS).

“There is a need to form high-powered committee with clear cut terms of reference to decide this matter once and for all,” the sources said, adding that the methodology of calculating poverty figures should also be analysed to update it in accordance with the ground realities. Now, the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) has once again accomplished Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2010/11. But the Planning Commission has not yet done analysis to come up with the latest poverty figures, the sources said.

However, the World Bank’s country partnership strategy report said that as reported there are indications that Pakistan saw an impressive decline in poverty trends during most years of the last decade, with the poverty rate falling from 34.5 percent in 2001/02 to an estimated 17.2 percent in 2007/08.

Over the last two years, the WB said, there have been signs that poverty levels may be rising, due to the downturn in the economy, floods and inflation. The rapid post-floods recovery in parts of the agriculture sector (those not hit by back-to-back floods), market price for wheat, and a surprisingly strong growth in remittances would likely to have benefitted the poorest (mainly rural) income groups, according to the report.

While Pakistan’s overall level of inequality remains steady and relatively low as compared to other developing countries, some of the volatile border regions and some rural areas within other provinces have a higher than average level of poverty, it said. Increased migration to the cities has also strained their capacity to deliver the much-needed basic services.


http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=84002&Cat=3
Uzair Sukhera said…
Sir

Would you also please compare the life safety before and after musharraf era? How many lives lost in this entire saga. What are the human rights metrics? Judicial crisis? how safe do people feel before this decade and after it? Economic condition without the social picture seems a partial one.
Riaz Haq said…
Uzair: "Would you also please compare the life safety before and after musharraf era? "

Fundamentally, 911 changed everything for Pakistan and many other countries because of US-led WOT....it had nothing to do with Musharraf per se.

However, there was still relative peace and stability and better management of the administration and the economy in Musharraf years than what we have seen since 2008 after his departure.
Riaz Haq said…
Here are some excepts of a Washington Post story on President Musharraf's speaking circuit and hiring of a lobby firm in Washington:

Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, a regular on the foreign policy speaking circuit in this country, is seeking access to top U.S. lawmakers as he plans his return home after several years of self-imposed exile. And so he’s hired a local lobbying firm, to the tune of $25,000 a month, to help facilitate the effort.

So far, the investment appears to have paid off. Early this month, Musharraf met with six U.S. senators — including Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and ranking committee Republican John McCain (R-Ariz.), as well as Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), the senior minority member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Musharraf also sat down with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who just four years ago denounced him as delusional and undemocratic after he suspended Pakistan’s constitution and imposed emergency rule.

The congressional meetings were widely publicized in Pakistan, where Musharraf has struggled to maintain an image as an international player as he plans to return and run for president.
----------------
According to a foreign agent registration filed here last month, Musharraf has retained Advantage Associates International, a lobbying group of seven former House members headed by three-term Texas Democrat Bill Sarpalius, who was unseated by the Republican House takeover in 1994.

The seven-month, $175,000 contract is financed by Philadelphia-based Pakistani-American Raza Bokhari, a wealthy physician-turned-entrepreneur and long-time Musharraf backer.

Advantage “helped facilitate those meetings” with Congress, Sarpalius said in a telephone interview. “We just help open up some of those doors where he can meet with some of those members and tell his story.”

Musharraf, Sarpalius said, is “not looking for any endorsements or anything like that. He’s basically been letting people know that he is looking at going back and running for president, and wants these members to understand his views and what he sees are some of the main issues facing Pakistan.”

Along with Vice President Biden and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), Musharraf spoke recently at the Washington Ideas Forum, co-sponsored by the Aspen Institute and The Atlantic. He called on the United States to be more understanding of Pakistan’s “sensitivities” about India, and said the two South Asian countries were engaged in a “proxy conflict” in Afghanistan. India, Musharraf said, was “trying to create an anti-Pakistan Afghanistan.”

Musharraf also said he had no knowledge, while president, that Osama bin Laden had been living for years in the town of Abbottabad, where a U.S. Special Operations raid found and killed the al-Qaeda leader in May. He said Pakistan may be guilty of “negligence” in failing to find bin Laden, but not of “complicity” in his concealment.

As part of his current 12-city U.S. tour, Musharraf will speak this month at the Clinton presidential library in Arkansas and the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He also plans to return to Washington for an appearance at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace....


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/checkpoint-washington/post/musharraf-with-lobbyists-gets-back-in-the-game/2011/10/18/gIQA0aeOuL_blog.html

http://www.fara.gov/docs/6062-Exhibit-AB-20110910-1.pdf

http://www.harrywalker.com/speaker/Pervez-Musharraf.cfm?Spea_ID=1169
Riaz Haq said…
Here's an excerpt of an Express Tribune blog on Musharraf's accomplishments:

1. Nine world class engineering universities were developed and 18 public universities further developed.

2. Pakistan was ranked third in world banking profitability.

3. The IT industry was valued at around $2 billion, including $1 billion in exports and employed around 90,000 professionals.

4. The CNG sector attracted over $70 billion in investment in the past five years and created 45,000 jobs.

5. The telecommunications sector attracted around $10 billion in investments and created over 1.3 million jobs.

6. Industrial parks were set up throughout the country for the first time.

7. Mega projects such as the Saindak, Rekodiq, marble production, coal production, mining and quarrying were pursued.

8. Foreign reserves increased from $700 million to $17 billion.

9. The Karachi stock market went from 700 points to 15,000 points.

10. The literacy rate improved by 11 per cent.

11. Poverty decreased by 10 per cent.

12. Four dams were built: Mirani, Subakzai, Gomalzam, Khurram, and Tangi,

13. Seven motorways were completed or were under construction,

14. Gwadar, an advanced sea port, was developed,

15. 650 kilometres of coastal highways were constructed.

16. A historic 100% increase in tax collection (amounting to Rs1 trillion) was observed.

17. Large scale manufacturing was at a 30-year high, and construction at a 17-year high.

18. Copper and gold deposits were found in Chagai, worth about $600 million annually if sold.

19. A new oil refinery with the UAE that could process 300,000 oil barrels a day was established.

20. The industrial sector registered 26 per cent growth.

21. The economy was the third fastest growing economy after China and India .

22. The Institute of Space Technology was established.

23. Sardar Bahadur Khan Women University Quetta was established.

24. The University of Science and Technology, Bannu, was established.

25. The University of Hazara was founded.

26. The Malakand University in Chakdara was established.

27. The University of Gujrat was established

28. The Virtual University of Pakistan was established

29. Sarhad University of IT in Peshawar was established

30. The National Law University in Islamabad was established

31. The Media University in Islamabad was established

32. University of Education in Lahore was established

33. Lasbela University of Marine Sciences, Baluchistan, was established

34. Baluchistan University of IT & Management, Quetta (2002)

35. The Pakistan economy was worth $ 160 billion in 2007

36. GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) was $ 475.5 billion in 2007

37. The GDP per Capita in 2007 was $ 1000

38. Revenue collection in 2007/08 was Rs1.002 billion

39. Exports in 2007were worth $18.5 billion

40. Textile exports in 2007 were worth $11.2 billion

41. Foreign direct investment in 2007 was $8.5 billion

42. Debt servicing in 2007 was 26 per cent of the GDP

43. The poverty level in 2007 was 24 per cent

44. The literacy rate in 2007 was 53 per cent

45. Pakistan development programs in 2007 were valued at Rs520 billion

46. The Karachi stock exchange in 2007 was $70 billion at 15,000 points

47. Exports in 2007: $18.5 billion

48. Pakistan now has a total of 245,682 educational institutions in all categories, including 164,579 in the public sector and 81,103 in the private sector, according to the National Education Census (NEC-2005).

49. There are now more than 5,000 Pakistanis doing PhDs in foreign countries on scholarship. 300 Pakistanis receive PhD degrees every year, in 1999, the number was just 20.

50. In total, 99,319 educational institutions increased in Musharraf’s era!


http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/2092/50-reasons-pakistan-needs-musharraf/
Riaz Haq said…
Ex spy chief Amarjit Singh Dulat tells DH why he thinks both India and Pakistan have their best chance at peace now

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/panorama/it-could-be-a-question-of-modi-bailing-out-pakistan-and-he-could-do-it-1192023.html

S. Raghotham of Deccan Herald: What is the legacy that Gen Pervez Musharraf, who passed away recently, has left on the Kashmir issue?

Ex RAW Chief AS Dulat: I was a great admirer of Musharraf. In fact, it was one of my unfulfilled desires that I wanted to meet him, but I never could. Having watched Kashmir for more than 35 years, I feel that there has been no Pakistani leader who has been more reasonable on Kashmir than Musharraf. From our point of view, the most positive thing was that he repeatedly said that whatever is acceptable to Kashmir and Kashmiris would be acceptable to Pakistan. There’s not been anybody else in Pakistan who has said that. Of course, Musharraf got into trouble when 9/11 happened, and he had to willy-nilly join George Bush’s War on Terror. And 9/11 definitely helped us, because it put pressure on Musharraf. And as part of that pressure, he was also told that he had to behave with India. In the years following 9/11, militancy went down. The other positive thing for us (post-9/11) was that the average Kashmiri....

-------

Manmohan Singh is on record that they (he and Musharraf, after Vajpayee and Musharraf in Agra in 2001) were very close to signing an agreement.


Q: What happened that we didn’t?

A: I think we dragged our foot, we took too long…Musharraf kept waiting for Manmohan Singh’s visit to Pakistan. The visit never happened.

Q: So, the recent revelations by Gen Qamar Bajwa, that PM Modi was to go to Pakistan, stay in a temple there for nine days, and then come out with a peace accord that would freeze the Kashmir issue for 20 years. Is that all true? Is it still possible? ...

A: I wouldn’t know. But coming from the (recently retired) Pakistan army chief Gen. Bajwa, there has to be some truth in it. I mean…there may be some exaggeration in it. I think this year -- this is my hunch, my gut feeling -- that something should happen because the Pakistanis are very keen. And they are in a big mess. So, it could be a question of Modi actually bailing out Pakistan. And he could do it…I feel Modi is the right man, he is under no pressure to move forward, but he can move forward.

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