Friday, December 31, 2010

Karachi Stock Index Beat BRICs in 2010

Pakistan's main stock market ended 2010 with a 28 percent annual gain, driven by foreign buying mainly in the energy sector, despite concerns about the country's macroeconomic indicators after summer floods, according to Reuters. Although it was less than half of the 63% gain recorded in 2009, it is still an impressive rise in KSE-100 index when compared favorably with the performance of Mumbai(+17%) and Shanghai(-14.3%) key indexes. Among other BRICs, Brazil is up just 1% for the year, and the dollar-traded Russian RTS index rose 22% in the year, reaching a 16-month closing high of 1,769.57 on Tuesday, while the rouble-based MICEX is also up 22%.


Pakistan's key share index KSE-100 was just over 1000 points at the end of 1999, and it closed at 12022.46 on Dec 31, 2010, sgnificantly outperforming BRIC markets for the decade. Pakistan rupee remained quite stable at 60 rupees to a US dollar until 2008, slipping only recently to a range of 80-85 rupees to a dollar. In spite of the currency decline, Pakistan's KSE-100 stock index surged 55% in 2009 in US dollar terms and 65% in rupee terms. During the same period of 1999-2009, Mumbai Sensex index moved from just over 5000 points to close at 17,464.81.

If you had invested $100 in KSE-100 stocks on Dec. 31, 1999, you'd have over $1000 today, while $100 invested in Mumbai's Sensex stocks would be worth about $400. Investment of $100 in emerging-market stocks in general on Dec. 31, 1999 would get you about $300 today, while $100 invested in the S&P500 would be essentially flat at $100 today.

The US Federal Reserve's current easy money policy, euphemistically called "quantitative easing", sent a torrent of US dollars flooding into the US, European and emerging markets around the world. All three major US stock indices rose in 2010. The Dow was up 1,149.46, or 11 percent. The S&P gained 142.54, or 12.8 percent. The Nasdaq ended higher by 383.72, or 16.9 percent.

Some of the US stimulus money found its way into India and Pakistan as well. The 28% gain in KSE-100 is driven in part by net foreign capital inflows of Rs. 43 billion ($515 million US dollars) in 2010. Similarly, global funds bought a net 6.05 billion rupees ($135 million) of Indian equities on Dec. 29, taking this year’s record flows into equities to 1.31 trillion rupees ($27 billion US dollars), according to data on the Securities and Exchange Board of India website. India's FII inflows surged 61 percent in 2010, making the gauge the most expensive in Asia and among the BRIC markets.

While China's situation is superior among the emerging markets, including BRICs, because it enjoys significant current account surpluses and has strong capital flow controls, it is also seeing its economy overheat along with India's economy. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Laureate Columbia University economist, has argued that India is more vulnerable to an asset bubble than China, saying that “strong economies that don’t yet have capital control become the focal point” for the liquidity injected by the US Federal Reserve. Stiglitz thinks that India, more than China or Brazil, should watch out for the tidal wave of money made available from the Fed’s quantitative easing. Mike Shedlock, an American investment advisor, believes that "India and China are going to overheat and crash, or their economic growth is going to slow dramatically, quite possibly both".

Although the hot money does help to partially fund the growing current account deficits in both India and Pakistan, the net inflow of $515 million of FII in Pakistan is relatively small at 0.3% of its GDP, and it is less likely to impact the economy even if all of it goes away in 2011. In India's case, however, the $27 billion in FII represents a little over 2% of its GDP and its sudden flight out of India is a substantial risk for Indian economy.

In my opinion, the uncertain US and European economic recoveries and future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve in 2011 and beyond represent the greatest source of instability for capital markets in the emerging nations such as India and Pakistan, which impose relatively lax controls on short-term capital flows.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Trade and Economy Indicators of 231 Countries

JS Global on Pakistani Stocks in 2010

Indian Economy's Hard Landing in 2011?

High Cost of Failure to Aid Flood Victims

Karachi Tops Mumbai in Stock Performance

India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2010

Pakistan's Decade 1999-2009

Musharraf's Economic Legacy

China's Trade and Investment in South Asia

India's Twin Deficits

Pakistan's Economy 2008-2010

Inflation Hits India

Goldman Sachs India Warning on Twin Deficits

India's Nov 2010 Imports, Exports

Pakistan' One-dimensional Coverage With Selective Headlines in 2010

Have you ever wondered if Pakistan is really as one-dimensional a country as stereotyped by the negative torrent of international media coverage that dominated the news headlines in 2010?

Have you ever thought that Pakistanis engage in any pursuits other than as perpetrators or victims of terror that the journalists find the most newsworthy about the world's sixth most populous South Asian nation?

Well, an Indian-American producer Madhlika Sikka on NPR's Talk of the Nation radio did wonder about it when she visited Pakistan this year. In the talk show aired on June 3, 2010, she described the main concerns of young Pakistanis follows:

"I think, that young people are concerned with the same things you'd think young people are concerned with. In fact, when I came home, the immigration officer asked me about Pakistan, and she said, well, what are they thinking about?

And I said, well, I met a lot of young people, and they're thinking about jobs, and they're thinking about the fact that the power goes out regularly, gas costs a fortune. They're really thinking about what their prospects are and the conflict with India, the war on terrorism, isn't at the top of their list."

She summed up her assessment of the current situation in Pakistan in the following words:

"Well, I think that I think that there's no doubt that if you live in a city like Islamabad or Peshawar, certainly where Julie McCarthy was, you know, they live and breathe this tension every day.

But let's take a city like Lahore, where we were just a couple of weeks ago. And last week, there was a huge attack on a mosque in Lahore, 70, 80 people were killed. You can't help but feel that tension, even though you are trying your best to go live your daily life as best you can. And I think that that push and pull is really a struggle.

But one thing I do want to talk about in the, you know, what is our vision of Pakistan, which often is one dimensional because of the way the news coverage drives it.

But, you know, we went to visit a park in the capital, Islamabad, which is just on the outskirts, up in the hills, and we blogged about it, and there are photos on our website. You could have been in suburban Virginia.

There were families, picnics, picnic tables, you know, kids playing, stores selling stuff, music playing. It was actually very revealing, I think for us and for people who saw that posting, because there's a lot that's similar that wouldn't surprise you, let's put it that way."




Along the same lines as NPR's Sikka, let me share with you some of the best kept secrets of Pakistan's other story which would take a lot of effort to discover on your own.

The world media have correctly reported on the deadly blasts caused by the frequent US drone strikes and many suicide bombings in 2010. But Pakistanis have also seen an explosion in arts and literature in the last few years as the nation's middle class has grown rapidly amidst a communications and mass media revolution. A British magazine Granta dedicated an entire issue in 2010 to highlight the softer side of Pakistan.

Granta has highlighted the extraordinary work of many Pakistani artists, poets, writers, painters, photographers and musicians inspired by life in their native land.



For example, the magazine cover carries a picture of a piece of truck art by a prolific truck painter Islam Gull of Bhutta village in Karachi. Gull was born in Peshawar and moved to Karachi 22 years ago. He has been practicing his craft on buses and trucks since the age of 13, and now teaches his unique craft to young apprentices. Commissioned with the assistance of British Council in Karachi, Gull produced two chipboard panels photographed for the magazine cover.

Granta issue has articles, poems, paintings, photographs and frescoes about various aspects of life in Pakistan. It carries work by writers like Mohsin Hamid (The Reluctant Fundamentalist), Daniyal Mueenuddin (In Other Rooms, Other Wonders), Kamila Shamsie (Burnt Shadows), Mohammad Hanif (A Case of Exploding Mangoes) and Nadeem Aslam (The Wasted Vigil) who have been making waves in literary circles and winning prizes in London and New York.

In a piece titled "Mangho Pir", Fatima Bhutto highlights the plight of the Sheedi community, a disadvantaged ethnic minority of African origin who live around the shrine of their sufi saint Mangho Pir on the outskirts of Karachi.

In another piece "Pop Idols", Kamila Shamsie traces the history of Pakistani pop music as she experienced it living in Karachi, and explains how the music scene has changed with Pakistan's changing politics.

A piece "Jinnah's Portrait" by New York Times' Jane Perlez describes the wide variety of Quaid-e-Azam's portraits showing him dressed in outfits that give him either "the aura of a religious man" or show him as a "young man with full head of dark hair, an Edwardian white shirt, black jacket and tie, alert dark eyes". Perlez believes the choice of the founding father's potrait hung in the offices of various Pakistani officials and politicians reveals how they see Jinnah's vision for Pakistan.

While Granta's focus on art and literature has produced a fairly good publication depicting multi-dimensional life in Pakistan, there are apects that it has not covered. For example, Pakistan has a growing fashion industry which puts on fashion shows in major cities on a regular basis. The biggest of these is Pakistan Fashion Week held in Karachi in February. Over 30 Pakistani designers - including Sonya Battla, Rizwan Beyg, and Maheen Khan - showed a variety of casual and formal outfits as well as western wear, jackets, and accessories.






There were scores of expos and trade shows put on by various industries, including a book fair in Karachi, attended by about 250,000 people. Publishers from the UK, Singapore, Iran, Malaysia and India also participated in the event.

Karachi's Mohatta Palace Museum hosted an Art exhibition, “The Rising Tide: New Direction in Art From Pakistan,” that included more than 40 canvases, videos, installations, mobiles and sculptures made in the past 20 years. Its curator, the feminist sculptor and painter Naiza Khan, told the New York Times that her aim was to show the coming of age of Pakistani art.



A Pakistani theater group defied the government ban and put on "Burqavanza", a satirical play in which all the actors wear burqa as a metaphor for hypocrisy in the nation. Adam Ellick of the NY Times reported that the play "doesn’t sidestep any of the country’s problems: a creeping radicalization, terrorism, government corruption, and interference by Western nations, especially the United States."

A conference celebrating 31 years of a theater group named Tehrik-i-Niswan (Feminist movement) included presentations, research papers, theatrical performances and a poetry recital just this month.

While it is true that Pakistan faces many serious crises, particularly religious extremism and terrorism, there is much more to see and report about this nation of 180 million people with a large and well-educated urban middle class.

Here's a video titled "I Am Pakistan":



Here's a CNBC Pakistan video on January 2011 events:



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Media Revolution

Along Grand Trunk Road in India and Pakistan

Pakistan's Urban Middle Class

Music Drives Coke Sales in Pakistan

Life Goes On in Pakistan

Karachi Fashion Week

Is Pakistan Too Big to Fail?

Karachi Fashion Week Goes Bolder

More Pictures From Karachi Fashion Week 2009

Pakistan's Foreign Visitors Pleasantly Surprised

Start-ups Drive a Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan Conducting Research in Antarctica

Pakistan's Multi-billion Dollar IT Industry

Pakistan's Telecom Boom

ITU Internet Data

Eleven Days in Karachi

Pakistani Entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley

Musharraf's Economic Legacy

Infrastructure and Real Estate Development in Pakistan

Pakistan's International Rankings

Assessing Pakistan Army Capabilities

Pakistan is not Falling

Jinnah's Pakistan Booms Amidst Doom and Gloom

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Is India's Economic Crash Likely in 2011?

Pakistan's economy had a hard landing in 2008. It was triggered by a balance of payments crisis brought about through precipitous decline in foreign capital inflows combined with policy inaction in response to major external shocks in terms of food and fuel prices during political transition. Is the Indian economy similarly vulnerable in 2011? Is it headed for significant slowdown in the next twelve months? And if it is, can the Indian leadership manage a soft landing through major policy actions now?

To answer these questions, let us examine the following facts:

1. India's current account deficit widened sharply to $13.7 billion in the June-quarter, which was around 3.7 per cent of GDP. The deficit was $4.5 billion in the same period year ago.



2. India's FDI has declined by a third from $34.6 billion in 2009 to $23.7 billion in 2010. Its current account deficit is being increasingly funded by short-term capital inflows (FII up 66% from $17.4 billion in 2009 to $29 billlion in 2010) rather than more durable foreign direct investment (FDI), posing a risk to external balance and funding of gap, according to a recent warning by Goldman Sachs. "Nearly 80 per cent of the capital inflows are non- FDI related. Given the excess spare capacity globally, FDI may remain weak going forward," the Goldman note said.





3. Inflation in India is running at a double digit pace as is credit expansion. India's primary articles price index was up 15.35 percent in the latest week compared with an annual rise of 13.25 percent a week earlier, data on Thursday showed. Year-over-year credit growth was 23 per cent till December 3, while deposit growth was only 15 per cent, as compared to RBI's projection of 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, for 2010-11.



4. India's Food and fuel prices are continuing to rise by double digits. The food price index rose more than 12 percent, with the price of onions -- the country's most widely-eaten vegetable -- of especial concern, while the fuel price index climbed 10.74 percent. This compared with 9.46 percent and 10.67 percent respectively in the previous week.

5. The oil prices are likely to spike as the American and European economies recover in 2011, prompting Indian commerce secretary Rahul Kullar to acknowledge that “I am not sanguine. One blip on crude prices and my import bill suddenly zooms. On pro-rata basis we are looking at $ 120 billion with a caveat that if oil prices go up, it could be $ 130-135 billion”. Crude oil prices are currently running at $ 87-88 per barrel.



While China's situation is better because it enjoys significant current account surpluses and has strong capital flow controls, it is also seeing its economy overheat along with India's economy. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Laureate Columbia University economist, has argued that India is more vulnerable to an asset bubble than China, saying that “strong economies that don’t yet have capital control become the focal point” for the liquidity injected by the US Federal Reserve. Stiglitz thinks that India, more than China or Brazil, should watch out for the tidal wave of money made available from the Fed’s quantitative easing. Mike Shedlock, an American investment advisor, believes that "India and China are going to overheat and crash, or their economic growth is going to slow dramatically, quite possibly both".

Indian President Pratibha Patil said last week that she is confident the economy will grow at about 9 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 2011 and would be on a sustained growth path of about 9 to 10 percent in FY12, according to Reuters. It is quite surprising that the Indian government continues to talk about increasing levels of economic growth in 2010-2011 and beyond amidst growing inflation and rising imbalances in the Indian economy. What they should be thinking about now is how to manage a soft landing by reducing liquidity and cutting India's twin deficits, rather than stepping on the accelerator and risk a big economic crash with long term negative consequences.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

China's Trade and Investment in South Asia

India's Twin Deficits

Pakistan's Economy 2008-2010

Inflation Hits India

Goldman Sachs India Warning on Twin Deficits

India's Nov 2010 Imports, Exports

Saturday, December 18, 2010

China Targets India and Pakistan to Grow Trade and Investments

The Chinese Prime Minister Mr. Wen Jiabao is on state visits to both India and Pakistan to grow his country's invesment and trade. He has signed deals worth $16 billion in trade with India, and $35 billion in trade and investment with Pakistan this month.

China is now India's largest trade partner, with bilateral trade expected to reach $60 billion during this fiscal year ending March 31, 2011. On Thursday, the two countries set a target for bilateral trade to reach $100 billion by 2015. The bulk of Chinese exports are financed by Chinese banks on attractive terms. And China has invested significantly in many parts of the world including South Asia, more in Pakistan than it has in India.



China is Pakistan’s third largest trading partner with $7 billion in trade in 2009, after the United States and the European Union, while Pakistan is China’s largest investment destination and second biggest trade partner in South Asia.

Currently, China enjoys two-to-one trade advantage with both South Asian nations, with China exporting twice as much as its imports. This large and growing imbalance stems from the fact that India and Pakistan import high-value manufactured products like power generation and telecom equipment from China, while India's biggest export to China is iron ore, and Pakistan's main export to China is cotton yarn.

The Chinese delegation to India and Pakistan was larger than the number in delegations led in recent weeks to India by US President Barack Obama (215), French President Nicolas Sarkozy (more than 60) and British Prime Minister David Cameron (about 40), according to a BBC report. For his Pakistan visit, Mr. Wen was accompanied by dozens of corporate chief executives and 250 business leaders—many of whom were also present during the Chinese leader's visit to India earlier this week, during which he announced economic deals aimed at stabilizing a fragile relationship with New Delhi, according to Wall Street Journal.

India and China signed some 50 deals in power, telecommunications, steel, wind energy, food and marine products worth $16bn at the end of a business conference attended by Mr Wen in the capital, Delhi, on Wednesday evening.

This overtakes the $10bn of agreements signed between Indian and American businesspeople during the recent visit of US President Barack Obama.

In Islamabad, Pakistan, the Chinese Premiere has signed 45 agreements worth $35 billion in just the first two days of his three day visit, approaching the total value ($40 billion) of all of India's agreements signed with China, US, France and Britain during their leaders' recent visits to New Delhi.

Pakistan and China Saturday signed 22 new trade agreements, worth $15-billion, aimed at deepening strategic and economic toes between the two countries, officials told media covering the visit.

These come on the top of another 13 agreements worth around $20 billion signed Friday after bilateral meetings.

The fresh deals were inked at a business summit addressed by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Pakistani host Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and attended by business representatives from the two nations.

Gilani said that the corporate and business sectors of both countries must now seize business opportunities offered by Pakistan and take the lead.

Wen urged the investors from his country to invest in Pakistan and help build the economic ties with the traditional Chinese friend.

"We have strong political relations and now we are building economic ties, which can witnessed from the fact that trade has risen from $1 billion in 2000 to $7 billion by 2009," he said.

The state-run Pakistan Television (PTV) said the agreements are expected to bring $25 billion in investments and double the bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2015.

Through their huge investments in Africa and significant commitments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Chinese have shown the extraordinary capacity to see great opportunity where others see large risks.

The Chinese know how to do good and do well. They are clearly demonstrating by Mr. Wen's Pakistan visit what they like to call their "all-weather friendship" with Pakistan. The marked shift in focus of this relationship from mostly defense-related deals to broad commerical ties is particularly welcome, given the rise of China as the world's second largest economy after the United States, and a major lender, investor and trading partner of the United States and the European Union.

The positive impact of China-Pakistan business relationship will only be achieved by full implementation of these agreements. Let's hope Pakistanis hold their end of the bargain to realize the full potential of economic ties with the world's fastest growing and the second largest economy.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

China Signs Power Plant Deals with Pakistan

Soaring Imports from China Worry India

China's Checkbook Diplomacy

Yuan to Replace Dollar in World Trade?

China Sees Opportunities Where Others See Risk

Chinese Do Good and Do Well in Developing World

Can Chimerica Rescue the World Economy?

Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

India's Big Media Coverup of Telecom Scandal

India's multi-billion dollar telecom scandal, also known as 2G scandal, is continuing to grow with new revelations coming out almost every day, especially since the failure of the blackout attempt orchestrated by some of the biggest Indian TV channels and newspapers.

The main source of these leaks are over 100 tapes of 5,000 recordings made by India's Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax authorities as part of their surveillance of Ms. Nira Radia. Radia lobbied government ministers and politicians on behalf of India's business elite, including the biggest business magnates Mukesh Ambani and Ratan Tata.



NDTV journalist Barkha Dutt and Hindustan Times columnist Vir Sanghvi are among those implicated by the tapes in the growing scandal. Initially, attention was focused on Ms. Dutt, who was accused of agreeing to pass on messages from Ms. Radia to the Congress party. Ms. Dutt denied that and defended herself on Twitter, in a statement and on television, and said that at most she had made an “error of judgment” in how she conversed with Ms. Radia.

The focus is now on on Mr. Sanghvi's role, according a Wall Street Journal report. In one of the tapes, Mr. Sanghvi sounded on one recording as if he was agreeing to slant his column on the feuding Ambani industrialist brothers according to Ms. Radia’s suggestions. Ms. Radia represents elder brother Mukesh Ambani, who controls Reliance Industries. Anil Ambani, the younger brother, controls the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. Mr. Sanghvi tells Ms. Radia the piece is “dressed up as a plea to [Indian Prime Minister] Manmohan Singh so it won’t look like an inter-Ambani battle thing except to people in the know.” She responds: “Very nice.” In another conversation, between Ms. Radia and an employee, she asks for questions to be prepared for an interview between Mr. Sanghvi and Mukesh Ambani, saying that “he has agreed to ask whatever questions we suggest.”

In a court affidavit filed last week, the Indian government said it had begun tapping Ms Radia's phone after an allegation that she was spying for foreign intelligence.

Ms. Radia's telephone was tapped by the Indian government for 180 days during two separate stints in 2008 and 2009. Several hundreds of those call recordings have so far been leaked to Indian media outlets in the past few weeks. Some of these recordings have been posted on the Internet by India's Outlook and Open magazines.

Stung by the disclosures, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has asked cabinet secretary KM Chandrasekhar to investigate and report within a month. Singh said he "was aware of the nervousness in the corporate sector" over authorized phone-tapping. The Tata group chairman has taken legal action after his conversations with a lobbyist were leaked to media.

Here are some of the key revelations to date:

1. Billionaire businessman Mukesh Ambani is quoted as bragging that the ruling Congress Party is "Apni Dukan" (our shop), implying that he owns the ruling party.

2. Telecom minister Andimuthu Raja left an estimated $40 billion on the table by accepting bribes in exchange for lower bids from Indian and foreign bidders on 2G cellular spectrum auction, according to a New York Times report.

3. India's Highway Minister Kamal Nath is alleged to skim 15% on all the projects his ministry oversees.


There have long been allegations of corruption against Indian government ministers and politicians, but the tapes now confirm the extent of graft that was accidentally discovered by Indian authorities who were looking for evidence of Radia's possible involvement in spying for foreign nations.

There has long been a nexus of crime, corruption and politics in India. Of the 278 current Indian MPs for whom records are obtainable, 63 have criminal backgrounds. Of those, 11 have been charged with murder and two stand accused of dacoity (banditry). Other alleged misdemeanors range from fraud to kidnapping, according to data collected by National Election Watch, the campaign group that has put together the data.

Most Indian politicians have used their election wins to significantly enrich themselves, according to their own pre-election declarations of assets. For example, the comparison of assets of candidates who won in 2004 and sought re-elections in 2009 shows that the wealth of UP politicians has grown by 559%, over five times, in five years, second only to their Karnataka counterparts who registered a growth of 693% in the same period, according to a report..

Commenting on the scandal, Wharton's Professor Jitendra Singh says corruption in India is "heterogeneous and multifaceted," ranging from a simple bribe to systemic corruption, "where retrograde cultural norms get well-established in specific settings, such that a non-corrupt newcomer may well find it impossible to survive." Inferior cultural norms are the toughest to tackle, and those values could prove very difficult to unhinge, according to Singh. "In its abstract form, the gains in a transaction get disproportionately appropriated by actors in relation to their role in the creation of this value," he says. "This distorts incentives and, ultimately, values in a society and leads to inequitable distribution of income and wealth, and inefficient allocation of capital." He warns of "collective consequences such as the institutionalization of inferior cultural norms [for example, 'in order to succeed, you have to be dishonest, because everyone else is dishonest'] that may take generations, even centuries, to sort out meaningfully."

The telecom scandal may just be the tip of the iceberg. A broader and more serious independent inquiry is now necessary to find any evidence of widespread corruption as powerful Indian businessmen like Ambanis and Tatas use their power, influence and cash to garner resources or projects, whether mining rights, gas fields, land, infrastructure projects or the electromagnetic waves known as spectrum that carry cellphone service.

As to the role of the media, the US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis once said that "sunlight is the best disnifectant". Transparency is not possible when the mass media join the effort to block sunlight, as has been the case in India's telecom scandal. Instead of playing their role as watchdogs in a democracy, many in the Indian media have chosen to collaborate with corrupt politicians and greedy businessmen to enrich themselves. The Indian media are guilty of manufacuring consent in a favor of the powerful few against the interests of the vast majority of India's population that is among the poorest and the most deprived in the world.

To protect the future of democracy, sustain economic growth and ensure that the benefits of growth are shared equitably by India's population, emergence of an honest, transparent and ethical media are absolutely essential. I hope the sane members of the Indian media will now find a way to clean up their ranks and begin a serious self-policing effort based on a new set of sound standards of professional ethics.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Manufacturing Consent in India

Challenges of Indian Democracy

Poor, Hungry and Illiterate India

Radia Tapes and Transcripts of India's 2G Scandal