Sunday, January 22, 2017

Trump Inauguration; WEF17 & Inequality in India

What tone did President Donald J. Trump set in his inauguration speech on Jan 20, 2017? Can Trump simultaneously take on the US establishment, friends and foes all at the same time? How will he browbeat US businesses to stop offshoring of manufacturing and jobs? How will he "eradicate radical Islamic terrorism" without the help of allies whose armies he says will not be "subsidized" by the United States? How's Trump's rise seen in Pakistan? Will he start trade wars with China and other countries running trade surpluses with the United States? Will he change Washington or will Washington change him?

Why is the World Economic Forum 2017 in Davos so concerned about growing economic inequality? Is globalization alone responsible for it? Why is India so unequal with 58.4% of the wealth owned by the top 1% of Indians? Why have the Brexit vote and Trump victory sent shockwaves through the ranks of the owners/investors of global businesses and industries? How will they respond to the powerful backlash against globalization? How is automation affecting the jobs situation? Is it equally responsible for loss of jobs?

Why was the new Laskar e Jhangvi chief Asif Chhotu, like his predecessor Malik Ishaq, killed in a police encounter in Punjab? Was this just another fake encounter? Will it help reduce sectarian carnage in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with leading Pakistani journalist Zahid Husain and regular panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/PDANReBBSBo





Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Trump Phenomenon

America and the Rise of ISIS

London Mayor Sadiq Khan's Election

Trump Policies

Economic Inequality in India, Pakistan

Economy and Security Situation in Pakistan

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Economic Inequality in India and Pakistan

Top 1% of Indians own 58% of wealth in India, according to a recent report by Oxfam as published by Wall Street Journal.  The report said the global average for wealth ownership of the top 1% is 51%.

Source: Oxfam



The income and wealth concentration in the hands of the richest top 1% skews the average per capita incomes and makes the material well-being of average citizen look better than it is.  The best way to measure how well or poorly an average citizen is doing is to look at the median income and wealth, not the average or mean. The median income reflects how much the person at the 50th percentile of the income distribution earns, giving us a better picture of the well-being of a “typical” individual in a given country. Similarly, median wealth represents how much wealth a person at the 50th percentile of the wealth distribution has accumulated.

Median Incomes in South Asia:

Centre for Global Development has estimated 2014 median incomes of countries around the world. Here's what it reported for India and Pakistan:

 Pakistan: Median Income per capita: $,1204.50, Median Household Income: $6,022.50 Mean (Average) per capita $4,811.31

India Rural: Median per capita $930.75 Median Household $4,653.75 Mean (Average) per capita $5,700.72

India Urban: Median per capita $1295.75 Median Household $6,478.75 Mean(Average) per capita: $5,700.72

It shows that India's urban median income is slightly higher than Pakistan's median income. However, India's rural median income is significantly lower than Pakistan's.  It should be noted that 70% of India's population lives in rural areas, much higher than Pakistan's 61%, according to the World Bank.

Using India's Census figures of 30% urban and 70% rural population, the median per capita income for all of India works out to $1,040.25, about 15.8% lower than Pakistan's median per capita income of $1,204.50.

Median Wealth in South Asia:

Average Pakistani adult is 20% richer than an average Indian adult and the median wealth of a Pakistani adult is 120% higher than that of his or her Indian counterpart, according to Credit Suisse Wealth Report 2016. Average household wealth in Pakistan has grown 2.1% while it has declined 0.8% in India since the end of last year.

Source: Credit Suisse Wealth Report 2016

Here are the key statistics reported by Credit Suisse:

Total Household Wealth Mid-2016 :

India $3,099 billion Pakistan $524 billion

Wealth per adult:

India Year End 2000 Average $2,036 Median $498.00

Pakistan Year End 2000 Average $2,399 Median $1,025

India Mid-2016 Average $3,835 Median $608

Pakistan Mid-2016 Average $4,595 Median $1,788

Average wealth per adult in Pakistan is $760 more than in India or about 20% higher.

Median wealth per adult in Pakistan is $1,180 more than in India or about 120% higher

Summary:

Median per capita income in Pakistan is 15.8% higher than in India, according to the World Bank PovcalNet figures. Median per capita wealth in Pakistan in Pakistan is 120% more than in India, according to Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2016.  The median figures reflect the financial situation of the people at the 50th percentile of the income and wealth distributions in each country.

The income and wealth concentration in the hands of the richest top 1% skews the average per capita incomes and makes the material well-being of average citizen look better than it is.  The best way to measure how well or poorly an average citizen is doing is to look at the median income and wealth, not the average or mean. Median income and wealth figures in South Asia show that average Pakistanis are better off economically than their counterparts in India.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2016

Pakistan's Middle Class Larger and Richer Than India's

Pakistan Translates GDP Growth to Citizens' Well-being

Rising Motorcycle Sales in Pakistan

Depth of Deprivation in India

Chicken vs Daal in Pakistan

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Altaba: Is Yahoo Stealing a Pakistani Business's Name?

Altaba, the new name for Yahoo after its deal with Verizon, is currently the name of a Pakistan-based company spelled as Al-Taba, according to the New York Times. Is this plagiarism?

Not only is the new Altaba a much bigger company than Al-Taba, the two companies operate in totally different industries: The Pakistani company manufactures surgical and beauty scissors.

The new name for what will remain of Yahoo is a combination of words “alternative and Alibaba,” according to a person familiar with the company’s thinking, who spoke on the condition of anonymity  to the Washington Post.  After the rest of the company is purchased by Verizon for under $5 billion, Altaba's biggest  remaining asset will be its 15% stake worth $35 billion in the Chinese company Alibaba.  In addition, Altaba will also own 35.5% of Yahoo Japan.



As to the Pakistani company Al-Taba, its website describes it as "one of the largest private manufacturers and exporter of vast rang (sic) of Instruments.  It adds that "we specialized (sic) in Manufacturing Quality Medical Surgical Scissors and Beauty Scissors. It comprises of an integrated manufacturing facility, employing skilled craftsmen to produce broad range of professional Instruments".

It's sad to see Yahoo's demise. Started at Stanford University in 1994 by Jerry Yang and David Filo, the company is the pioneer of the web with an illustrious history in Silicon Valley. Yahoo enabled millions and billions of users to search the web for a variety of content and use its many services including e-mail, shopping and Yahoo groups. It will be missed.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

The Trump Phenomenon

Islamophobia in America

Silicon Valley Pakistani-Americans

Pakistani-American Leads Silicon Valley's Top Incubator

Silicon Valley Pakistanis Enabling 2nd Machine Revolution

Karachi-born Triple Oscar Winning Graphics Artist

Pakistani-American Ashar Aziz's Fire-eye Goes Public

Two Pakistani-American Silicon Valley Techs Among Top 5 VC Deals

Pakistani-American's Game-Changing Vision 

Minorities Are Majority in Silicon Valley 

Sunday, January 1, 2017

Pakistan in 2016: Economy, Security & Relations With India, US

How was the year 2016 for Pakistan? What can Pakistan expect in 2017?

Did Pakistan’s internal security improve in 2016? If do, how? And by how much? How was it done? By Zarb e Azb military operation? Did Pakistan implement the National Action Plan to address extremism and radicalization in society?

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal

How did Pakistan’s economy do? And how did the stock market do? Did improved security help? Did China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments help boost investor confidence in the country?

Source: Bloomberg



What caused deterioration in India-Pakistan ties? Was it the murder of Burhan Wani and India’s attempt to blame it on “cross-border terrorism” from Pakistan? Did Indian PM Modi succeed in isolating Pakistan?

How will Obama’s exit and Trump’s presidency affect US-Pakistan relations? Will these be as bad as under Obama? Or better? Or worse under Trump? How will Pakistan’s close ties with China and warming relations with Russia play into this?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/87m_t7D8ftY





https://vimeo.com/197727259




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan KSE100 Stock Index Among World's Top Performers

Obama's Parting Shot: New Sanctions on Pakistan NESCOM

700,000 Indian Soldiers vs 10 Million Kashmiris

Is Modi Succeeding in Isolating Pakistan? 

China Pakistan Economic Corridor: 2 Million New Jobs

Impact of Trump Appointments on US Policy

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan

Friday, December 30, 2016

Pakistan's KSE100 is the World's Top Performing Stock Index

Pakistan's KSE100 (Karachi Stock Exchange 100) index closed the year 2016 as the world's best performing stock market index over one-year and five-year periods, according to data available from Bloomberg. It has not only outperformed India's Sensex index but also the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets index.

Source: Bloomberg


Pakistan's key index KSE-100 has rocketed up nearly 46% in 2016, far outpacing India's Sensex's 2.57% rise and MSCI emerging market's 8.42% increase. Similarly, over 5 year period, KSE-100 has soared 321% vs India's Sensex rise of 72% and Morgan Stanley emerging market index decline of 7.72%.

Source: Bloomberg


Pakistani stock market gains are driven by multiple factors. Dramatically improved security has brought investors and accelerated the nation's GDP growth. Adding to that is the optimism accompanying Morgan Stanley's decision to bring Pakistan back into its emerging market index that has spurred more buying by foreign index fund managers.

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
Other major indicators such as rising cement and energy consumption as well as growing sales of motorcycle and automobiles. A big driver of these improvements is the Chinese commitment of more than $50 billion to finance China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is expected to add over 2 million direct and indirect jobs to Pakistan's economy and boost the country's GDP growth rate to 7.5%.  If all goes well and on schedule, of the 21 agreements on energy– including gas, coal and solar energy– 14 will be able to provide up to 10,400 megawatts (MW) of energy by March 2018. According to China Daily, these projects would provide up to 16,400 MW of energy altogether. In addition, there will be roads, rail tracks and oil and gas pipelines stretching thousands kilometers to connect Pakistan's Arabian sea ports to landlocked Western China.

After years of underinvestment and slow growth, Pakistan is finally seeing a lot of investment and development activity.  Pakistan's economic recovery is in full swing with double digit growth in multiple industries, including auto, pharma, chemicals, cement, fertilizers, minerals, etc.  It is expected to pick up steam over the next several years with new investments on the back of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related projects. The challenges to sustain this growth ranging are many, among the biggest are continuous improvement in security, maintaining political stability and timely execution of projects.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Investors Undeterred By Modi's Threats to Isolate Pakistan

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Forecast

Growing Middle Class in Pakistan

Rising Energy Consumption

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Pakistan's Thar Desert Sees Development Boom

Gwadar vs Chabahar Ports